You might be forgiven for thinking that Hillary Clinton's 9.1% majority in the Pennsylvania primary popular vote meant a gain in the overall nomination contest. As we shall see, this is not the case.
Quick Summary:
A) If this contest were a 100 lap race, Obama would be on lap 92, more than 9 laps ahead of Hillary with less than 8 to go.
B) HC is 4.4% further behind than before PA. Just to stay the same as pre-PA, HC would have needed at least +18 delegates instead of +10.
C) North Carolina is predicted to be a win for BO. However, even if it becomes a draw, HC would still need to win all other pledged delegate contests by a margin of +60% for a clear pledged delegate majority.
D) Based on the latest polls for remaining contests, HC would still need more than 200 out of the 300 or so remaining superdelegates to reach a clear majority (with or without with FL & MI).
Full details of how the numbers were calculated below:
Hillary’s ‘PA Comeback’ is a myth. Sure, she won a majority of the PA popular vote, but that’s about as relevant as saying Obama ate more waffles. This is a multi-state contest for a convention delegate majority. In that context, HC failed to gain ground on her competitor, and in fact lost ground after PA.
The numbers I reference for comparison are based on the latest figures from Real Clear Politics, DemConWatch, TheGreenPapers. The figures closely match most MSM predictions from AP, NBC, CBS and CNN. They show that with official delegate count yet to be confirmed in PA, HC gained 10 delegates more than BO.
IMPORTANT: We will focus on the only figure that actually matters in the state nominations election process, pledged delegates.
Despite the spin, popular vote and superdelegates are not part of the state-by-state elections process. Superdelegates come into play at the convention and are freely able to choose their allegiance at the time. Even some who had already announced their preferred candidate have already changed their minds.
Since neither candidate will gain enough pledged delegates for a simple majority, SDs will determine the final outcome, but for now, the contest is about pledged delegates only.
ANALYSIS:
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A) The Final Laps
Before we jump right into the equations, perhaps it would be best to consider an analogy as an easier way to appreciate the real magnitude of the challenge facing HC ahead.
Imagine you are in a 100 lap race. Being a lap or two behind may be no big deal near the start of the race, but it becomes insurmountable in the final laps.
In our analogy, BO is on his 92nd lap with 8 remaining and is more than 9 laps ahead of HC on her 83rd.
MATH:
There are 3253 pledged delegates.
To win the race, a candidate has to gain more than half of the pledged delegates 3253/2 = 1626.5
BO has 1490 pledged delegates so is at 1490/1626.5 = 0.916, equivalent to 91.6 out of 100 laps.
HC has 1336 pledged delegates so is at 1336/1626.5 = 0.821, equivalent to 82.1 out of 100 laps.
Therefore BO’s lead is 91.6 – 82.1 = 9.5 laps.
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B) Hillary lost ground in PA
Although HC won a majority in PA, she lost significant ground in the main objective to win the nomination.
Following our analogy, prior to PA, HC was on lap 77 and BO on lap 87. Although HC caught up by half a lap in PA, BO is now 4.5 laps nearer the finish.
Let’s start with the facts and/or best estimates:
- PA sends 158 pledged delegates to the convention.
- Prior to PA, BO had 1416 pledged delegates to 1252 for HC, a margin of +164 for BO
- Prior to PA, there were 566 pledged delegates yet to be determined.
- After PA there are 566-158 = 408 pledged delegates remaining.
Ok, let’s see what it would take for HC to catch BO.
Prior to PA, to catch BO, HC needed 365 to BO’s 201 out of the 566 that remained.
(MATH: 365-201 = 164, 365+201 =566, 365/566 = 64.5% )
After PA, HC gained +10 incremental delegates (74:84) reducing BO’s pledged delegate margin to 154. Now she needs 281 to BO’s 127 out of the 408 remaining.
(MATH: 281-127 = 154, 281+127 =408, 281/408 = 68.9% )
So HC’s target has increased from 64.5% to 68.9% equivalent to 4.4% further behind.
Just to stay the same as pre-PA, HC would have needed to gain another 8 pledged delegates in PA.
(MATH: 408 * 64.5% = 263, 281 – 263 = 18, 18 – 10 = 8)
So that was what it would take to catch BO. Now let’s see what it would take to win a clear pledged delegate majority.
There are 408 pledged delegates remaining and HC has 1336 out of the 1626 needed for a pledged delegate majority.
In order to win on pledged delegates, HC needs 290 out of the 408 remaining delegates or 71% (up from 66% pre PA).
(MATH: 1626 – 1336 = 290, 290/408 = 71%)
In contrast, BO only needs 1626 – 1490 = 136 out of the 408 remaining or 136/408 = 33% (down from 37% pre PA).
So in the overall race BO has improved by 4% while HC has fallen behind by 5%.
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C) The North Carolina Effect
There are 9 contests remaining in the battle for the nomination. The largest two, IN and NC represent close to half (46%) of the remaining pledged delegates.
There are 408 pledged delegates left to determine after PA. 115(~28%) are in NC.
Currently NC is expected vote a majority for BO (RCP).
However, let's see what would happen if NC is only a draw.
There are 408-115=293 non NC pledged delegates remaining.
If NC is a draw, HC would need 233 of remaining 293 non NC delegates to win = 79.5% to 20.5% or a +60% majority!.
(MATH: (1626.5 - 1336 = 291.5, 115/2 = 57.5 291.5 – 57.5 – 233, 408 – 115 = 293, 233/293 = 79.5%)
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D) Superdelegates to the Rescue?
The HC campaign is arguing that the SDs should vote against the pledged delegate majority. It is unlikely though possible that many SDs will support HC. The question is even if SDs overwhelmingly endorse HC, can she still really win?
Because the following relies heavily on inaccurate polls, it is only included as a rough guide. Once statistics come into play, they are open to interpretation (unlike the math above).
HC currently has 1592 pledged and super delegates.
There are 408 pledged delegates remaining and 302 uncommited superdelegates.
To win a clear majority, a candidate needs 2024 delegates (inc pledged and super).
HC needs 2024 - 1592 = 432 delegates (pledged and super) to reach a clear majority. Similarly BO needs 2024 – 1726 = 298.
Based on average polling estimates listed in Wikipedia, and calling both NC and IN a draw, I calculated that HC is likely to gain around 210 delegates to roughly 180 for BO. Full details are beyond the scope of this report, but might follow at a later stage.
Since polls are notoriously inaccurate, I will only use these figures as a guide. To gain an overall pledged and superdelegate majority, HC would need around 200 SDs out of the uncommitted. On the other hand, BO would need only 120 of the uncommitted SDs.
In other words, BO needs less than half the SDs to back him, whereas HC needs 2/3 of the remaining 301 SDs to overturn BO’s elected pledged delegate majority.
So, what about MI and FL?
It turns out that it doesn’t really make much difference, assuming that some arrangement is reached about MI (eg an equal or even a 73/55 split). Since HC won close to 57% of each, there is little change in her position. BO’s margin drops to around 50 delegates, but he maintains his lead and still needs less than half the SDs remaining.
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E) Predicted v Actual:
Prior to Super Tuesday, pollsters predicted a win for HC in PA of 20-30%. After Feb 5th, the polls dropped to around +15%. During the run up to the vote, the margin decreased to 5-10%.
If HC had kept her PA lead to +20% she would have had a pledged delegate majority roughly 90-95 to 63-68, more or less three times the actual result or around +30 delegates.
(MATH: +20% = 60% to 40%, 158 * 60% = 95, 158 – 95 = 63)
(Note that popular vote % does not translate directly to delegate count due to district delegate structure, hence the suggested ranges).
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CONCLUSION:
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Ultimately, the main factor in effect is that the race is so close to completion and HC is substantially behind for this late stage.
With only 8 out of 56 contests and 408 out of 2845 pledged delegates remaining, HC’s chances of winning the nomination seem like the statistical equivalent of hell freezing over.
Should Hillary stay in the race?
She really has no choice. Although her chance of winning is about as realistic as that of my pet frog, how else is she going to pay herself back the $5M and Penn his $4M+ her campaign owes them?
So next time you feel like writing a check for Hillary’s campaign, save time. Just make it out to Penn & Clinton.
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If I have erred, please be gentle. I will humbly correct any 'arith-mis-takes' ;)
CT