Many have commented on the relative impossibility of Hillary to amass the total number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. It has also been noted that she will probably end the primary season behind in other electoral measures of success, such as popular vote and number of states won. I would suggest that these simple measures fail to adequately take into account all of the factors that will be important in the eventual general election. I would propose that not only does Hillary have an argument to say she that she CAN win in November, she can also, convincingly, I think, make the argument that she has already won the primary. I've put together a formula based on the College Football Bowl Championship Series, the indisputably brilliant way in which bowl games are assigned and championships annointed. Depending on the feedback I get here, I am considering sending this system on to the DNC, in hopes it can help resolve the current stalemate. I initially designed this infallible system a month or so ago, but I've updated and re-designed some key elements.
- Rankings (R)
To determine the candidates rankings, all polls taken since January 2007 should be averaged. The winner of this will be averaged against a poll taken of all pundits and members of the press corps. After these two are averaged, a front-runner will be named.
Overall, when taken since 2007, Hillary probably still outpaces Obama. However, since every single member of the press corps is a card-carrying Obamabot, he wins this category easily.
Analysis: Obviously, I did not tabulate all of the poll averages. this determination must be considered an estimate.
Rankings: Obama #1, Clinton #2
- Voter impact (VI)
Next, we will calculate wins and losses in head to head contests. "Strength of Schedule" will be most important here. As has become clear this year, certain states are proportionally more important than others. The equation used will be as follows:
Popular vote percentage, head to head (p) + Delegates assigned (d)/ number of states won (s) * number of important states won (is*) = Candidate's score
*Important States:
CA NH
NY MA
TN NJ
FLA IL
MI OH
TX* PN
*Only primary is important
This year, the delegates from MI and FLA will not be used in the delegate(d) count, although they will be counted towards the important state (is) total. A fair compromise.
So, to approximate,
Obama- 51.5(p) * 1411(d) / 30(s) * 1(is) = 2422
Clinton- 48.5(p) * 1250(d) / 15(s) * 10(is) = 40,416
Analysis: Although Obama has a clear advantage in delegates, popular vote, and states won, his advantage is decicively overcome when weighing the important states, an invaluable metric that guages accurately Clintons "winability" and Obama's strong tendency towards "unelectability".
Winner: Clinton decisively.
Superdelegates (SD)
Now to the ever-contraversial superdelegates. Again, due to relative importance, certain superdelegates are more valuable than others. Nearly all superdelegates get 1 vote, except for ex-presidents. They get one million votes per term served, due to their invaluable contribution to our great nation and party. So, for the sake of argument lets go out on a limb and say the trend towards Obama continues. Among "regular" super-delegates, lets say Obama nets 498 to Clinton's 250. Again for the sake of argument, lets say Carter endorses Obama, for one million points. Bill, of course, endorses Hillary, and due to his two terms gets two million points.
Final Superdelegate score: Obama: 1,000,498
Clinton: 2,000,250
Analysis: As we can see, Obama's burgeouning SD advantage is overwhelmed when weighed against the historical stature of our former Presidents.
Winner: Hillary, nearly double!
Final Tally
To determine the final tally, The voter impact(VI) is added to the superdelegate total (SD) and is then divided by the ranking(R).
(VI)+(SD)/(R)= Final Score
In this case:
Obama: 2,422(VI)+1,000,498(SD)/1(R)= 1,002,920
Clinton: 40,416(VI)+2,000,250(SD)/2(R)= 1,020,333
The winner through this system, which takes into account electoral and personal importance, shows Hillary with an edge. I am going to start circulating this to superdelegates, urging them to promote this. We need to end this primary and decide on the only legitimate nominee: Hillary Rodham Clinton!
It's math, people, I don't know why we are even still debating this thing!
If it's good enough for College Football, it's good enough for the Democratic Primary.