I have to admit that I am a tech junkie. The moment a new product comes out, I am the first one to get it. That is how I am. This is probably why I work in Tech field. Because of all this, I following news in the tech world very closely.
So as I look at the battle between Clinton and Obama, I am reminded of the battle between HD DVD and Blu-Ray, the two formats that fought for dominance over the High Definition DVD market. When the HD war began, money was on HD DVD being the eventually winner, but that did not happen.
So, in this posting, I will track the DVD format war and the current Democratic "war" and show how things similiarly played out. Warning, Clinton supports may not like the ending.
Format War
In the Summer of 2005, talks between the major players broke down on what would be the unified format for High Definition DVDs. There was a lot of finger pointing. But the landscape for the battles were set. HD DVD is believed to be the clear favorite.
Democratic War
Michigan and Florida try to move up thier Primaries. They are declared void. The landscape for the battles were set. Clinton is believed to be the clear favorite.
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Format War
HD DVD announces that it will delay its roll out from Fall 2005 to Spring 2006. Because of this two studios, Paramount and Warner, announce that they would release titles in both HD DVD and Blu-Ray. Netflix announces it will support both formats.
Democratic War
The Clinton camp downplays the importance of Iowa. Some of her advisors think she sould, like her husband, just skip it. Some think she should just campaign as if she is the Democrat candidate and thus she will be. This allows Obama an opening that he uses to win Iowa. Now the Democratic establishing is looking at both Obama and Clinton.
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Format War
The first HD DVD player comes out on April 18th, 2006. This is two months before the first Blu-Ray player comes out. The first Blu-Ray players are found to have numerous bugs, the discs are not reading do to a formating issue. Many Blu-Ray discs are replaced for free. So HD DVD gets to the market first and there are numerous problems with Blu-Ray.
Democratic War
Clinton "wins" New Hampshire, "Michigan", and Nevada. The media and Clinton's team start to talk about how she is going to win this thing. Obama's win was just a fluke. Might as well crown her the nominee.
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Format War
Sony releases its new Playstation 3 with a built in Blu-Ray player built in. Microsoft releases an HD DVD player add on for its XBox system that could be bought seperately. Many in the industry question the approach, especially that it doesn't look like people would buy a game console to watch movies. However, Playstation 3's start flying off the shelf, outselling the Microsoft add-on 5 to 1. This would play out later in the war.
Democratic War
Obama's campaign starts to rely on small donors via its website. Clinton hits up big donors for its cash. Washington insiders wonder if the Obama campaign can build up enough money and stay away from lobbiest money. I think we know how this played out.
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Format War
LG releases the first dual player for both formats. Warner release the Total HD Disc which will run on both an HD DVD player or a Blu-Ray player. This just keeps the war going.
Democratic War
Richardson and Edwards drop out of the race, but don't automatically endorse either Obama or Clinton. The war continues.
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Format War
At the beginning of 2007, Blu-Ray goes on a winning streak outselling HD DVD every week of the year. Many in the industry start to see Blu-Ray as the eventual winner. HD DVD executives state that they, though, sold more players in the last part of the year. Later, it was discovered that was due to Wal-Mart selling a cheap Chinese-made HD DVD player for $98 during Black Friday.
Democratic War
Obama goes on a winning streak after Super Tuesday. The Clinton campaign claims they stopped that winning streak with wins in Ohio and Texas, only to later find out that Obama left Texas with more delegates.
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Format War
HD DVD "drops the bomb". Paramount and Dreamworks announce that they are dropping the Blu-Ray format. Many in the industry see some shady dealings going on, back room deals and underhanded tactics.
Democratic War
Rev. Wright scandal hits. Where did this comes from?
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Format War
HD DVD sales pop on the release of "Transformers" exclusively on the HD DVD format. Oddly, though, Blu-Ray continues to outsell all HD DVD movies for the week that "Transformers" was released due to a 2 for 1 sale. Michael Bay is furious with the Paramount deal and announces that his next project will be released exclusively on Blu-Ray.
Democratic War
Clinton's numbers pop on Rev. Wright scandal, but Obama's "Race" speech seems to quell her surge. Many are driven to Obama's camp over the whole event, like Gov. Richardson.
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Format War
As 2007 came to a close, it was clear that Blu-Ray was winning in sales. The numbers clearly showed Blu-Ray with a comfortable number well ahead of HD DVD. However, many saw a continued stalemate and thought that the war would never end.
Democratic War
SOUNDS FAMILIAR!!!
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So now we come to the conclusion of the Format War and I think this will be how the Democratic War will finally end.
However, behind the scences, Warner was looking closely at the numbers. That they were selling both HD DVD and Blu-Ray, the numbers were telling them what the consumers wanted. Warner, being one the king makers, finally would make a decision.
In the run up to the Consumer Electronic Show in early 2008, there was something in the air, something big. Rumors were that Warner would drop HD DVD and finally end this thing. So before CES 2008 opened, Warner "dropped the bomb" on HD DVD. Stating that they were going with Blu-Ray. HD DVD was stunned, they canceled their CES press confrence and left Vegas in shock.
Thus Warner's dismissal of HD DVD opened the flood gates. Netflix, Walmart, and Best Buy all quickly announced that they would drop HD DVD. Fans of the HD DVD format also openly stated that it was over.
On Feb. 19th, 2008, HD DVD executives officially through in the towel. The war was over.
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So who will be the "Warner" for the Democratic Party? Who will finally be the one, or ones, to look at the numbers and say "It's over, Hillary"? Which Super Delegate or Delegates, will finally end this war and have Hillary throw it the towel?
I ask this, because it is going to happen. History always has a way of repeating itself.