I am making here and today a prediction that I hope everybody will remember come the convention or that everyone will forget if I am wrong.
Today's fundraiser speech by Obama, as reported by the Huffington Post, clarifies a lot of his thinking when it comes to his VP and I have come out of it with the clear indication Kathleen Sebelius is his favorite right now.
Hear me out under the fold.
First, he says he doesn't need/want someone to reinforce him on the CiC front
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Last night at a fundraiser in San Francisco, Barack Obama took a question on what he's looking for in a running mate. "I would like somebody who knows about a bunch of stuff that I'm not as expert on," he said, and then he was off and running. "I think a lot of people assume that might be some sort of military thing to make me look more Commander-in-Chief-like. Ironically, this is an area--foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain."
Part of this is his own self-confidence in his judgement and his version of his experience and that's fine. He thinks he is ready so he does not need to overcompensate.
Part of what those remarks also betray though is also his reluctance to pick someone based on the perception they "help" him regarding a supposed CiC gap. Picking an old military/DC hand (Webb, Zinni, Biden, Richardson) would be read as trying to conjure a weakness, which would undermine his argument that traditional Washington experience is not necessary and that he IS ready to be CiC on his own merits. Picking a VP based on that criteria would be reinforcing that storyline in the media that he is not experienced enough.
So it would not make sense for him to go there, whether on the merits of the case (he does not think he needs to ) or politically (he should not reinforce the media meme)
Second thing he says here, is that his criteria would be completing him on issues he is not strong with.
Arguably, he has been open about his lack of management experience, which means he will probably pick a governor. I think this would be a better idea in general anyway since we know Americans like to elect governors but I also think he has been pretty open about his lack of taste for navigating the bureaucracy and the paperwork so having a VP that could be familiar with that kind of process would be ideal.
One reason I think this remark also points to Gov Sebelius is the following :
http://blogs.tnr.com/...
Every so often, like at last December's NPR debate, Obama sends off signals that he wants to make energy and climate change the centerpiece of his domestic-policy agenda if he gets elected. By contrast, it seems likely that Clinton would make health care her top priority. I'm sifting through tea leaves here, but that's my best guess.
Read the whole thing but if you remember, when asked the first three things he would do, he listed energy along with Iraq and another one (health care or the economy). So arguably climate change is up there for him in terms of priority.But as Huffington post points out:
Another area--and this one is policy--in which Obama is not an expert is energy.
Where am I going with this ? Well, it so happens that one of the policy field in which Gov. Sebelius had an impact is ... climate change and energy policy (see her recent veto of new coal plants and so on). Which is interesting for a governor of Kansas to say the least. So one could think this would be another reason she fits the bill of what he describes perfectly. Energy IS one of the her (few) policy strengths besides good management.
Third, There is this:
Last night Senator Obama had a few more words on the subject of choosing a vice president. "That last thing I'd say about a vice president is--obviously, you want someone who can be president and who shares a broad vision of where I want to take the country; don't have to agree with me on every particular, but shares with me a bias for opening up government, adding a rational discourse about how we're gonna solve problems, a bias towards empowering individual citizens." Those seats at the table again.
So he wants someone that reinforces his message of change and unity. He needs a new face and someone who is famous for the same thematic of unity and bipartisanship. Mmmmmm What is Governor Sebelius famous for that the other names bandied about don't ? That's right. Her appeal in a Republican state. Her working hand in hand with the Republicans in a bipartisan manner ... to the point where she lured quite a bit of them back into our Party. Does that remind you what someone hopes to achieve at the national level ?
And finally, the article notices this about the previous paragraph:
Note Obama's delicate sentence constructions. Never a gender pronoun--a he or a she--anywhere.
First I think he sees choosing a woman as the best way to reach out to Clinton supporters without having to pick an actual Clinton supporter as VP which would be arguably uncomfortable and potentially fraught with tension
And then there is the demographic problem. Obama seems to have two demographic weaknesses going into that election. Blue collar whites and women (Latinos too arguably but I would argue that the Republicans have done enough damage with that electorate that the fact they prefer Clinton in the primary won't turn them off of Obama for the general).
Of those two demographics, which one should he tailor his VP pick to ? Which one is more relevant to a victory ? Well, Ben Smith says this this morning:
But it's also worth keeping in mind that this isn't a matter of winning the white male vote. Democrats never win that Demographic. Indeed, as my colleague David Kuhn notes, Bill Clinton did little better with white men in 1992 (37%) than Mike Dukakis did in 1988 (36%) -- Clinton just had Perot to siphon off many of those votes.
Even in 1996, Clinton won just 38% of the white male vote; Dole won 49%, Perot 11%.
And even Jimmy Carter lost white men in 1976, with Ford capturing 51% of that vote to Carter's 47%.
So arguably keeping the woman vote, which is a majority of the electorate, is more important. Particularly this year since women were particularly energized by Hillary's candidacy but disappointed by her loss. Considering that half of the voters think McCain is pro-choice (erroneously), Obama will certainly have to do a gesture to overcome the bitterness and get them to vote for him.
So choosing a woman would be the best way to go, both for demographic and political reason.
A few more things ...
- Janet Napolitano would also fit the bill on many of these things. But the "unmarried lesbian" thing would probably disqualify her, at least in private.
- I also read a few days back (sorry cannot remember the link) that someone was arguing for Webb by pointing out his own ambiguous racial history and history of borderline insensitive remarks would make an Obama-Webb ticket a beautiful exercise in racial reconciliation. Well, I would argue Sebelius would be an asset on the racial front by very very subtly reminding people of his own white Kansas roots. Because of Wright, Obama is now starting to be seen as more African-American even though he is half-half. Sebelius would be a good way to delicately throw back into the media zeitgeist that half of his family is white and from the Midwest.
- Of course the awesome thing is that Kansas is open to Obama and having Sebelius on the ticket would put it in contention, even though that's not a high-priority state. UPDATE: As fellow commenters point out, she would also help in the whole Midwest and in Ohio (Her father was a governor in the 70s which could at least help with older generation - incidentally one of the demographics resisting Obama there)
- Another advantage of Governor Sebelius is her husband who, as a fellow commenter pointed out a few days ago, is really awesome and will definitely appeal to a branch of the blue-collar male electorate we were talking about above (he calls himself the First Dude of Kansas).
- Something to be said too about her stunning lack of negatives. The only damaging story one can find about her is that "Drop the Soap" thing from her son, a stupid offensive board game he created about prison life. That is a huge plus. After being governor for so long, it says something of her that not much can be found about her to complain. No scandal. Nothing.
- That said, I realize it also means Gov. Sebelius is fairly bland but considering that Obama does not lack charisma, I would argue that this would be a good thing. She is friendly and folksy without outshining him (avoiding a Edwards/Kerry type problem). And she won two elections in a Republican state so she can't be that bad of a campaigner (UPDATE: And as someone points out below, the other candidates such as Richardson or Webb are not known to be very good at campaigning either).
So I really think Obama-Sebelius would be a good idea and I think this speech shows this is where he is headed right now.
Whether it is her or not, I have always thought he would choose a Clinton/Gore model rather than a Bush/Cheney model when picking his VP (aka someone who furthers his message rather than shores up a weakness).
And this speech is the first clear indication I am right.
UPDATE: It should be noted Tim Kaine would also fit the bill on many of these criteria, except for the woman one (but Kaine speaks Spanish which would help with Latinos)