Wharton professor Gregory P. Nini and I just released a new study that casts serious doubt on the use of the popular vote to provide legitimacy in the current Democratic nominating contest.
A major problem with using the popular vote as a measure of democratic will is that some states have held primaries while others have used caucuses, which have far lower turnout.
According to our analysis, an additional 4.1 million voters likely would have participated in the Democratic nominating process had every caucus state instead held a primary – people who are left out of current popular vote tabulations. Additionally, it is likely that the candidates’ share of the popular vote would be different.
When we forecast the likely outcome of hypothetical primaries in caucus states by using their demographic profiles to project vote outcomes based on national demographic voting patterns, we find that Barack Obama’s lead in the popular vote would increase from about 2.5 percentage points to about 3.5 percentage points. This translates into a lead of more than 1.3 million votes, up notably from the current number of about 717,000 votes.
A pdf of the study is available for download here.
"Politics have rarely been hotter." - The Rake Magazine on Glenn Hurowitz's new book Fear and Courage in the Democratic Party.