Quinnipiac University has just released polls from the so-called "Big Three" states -- Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- and they are good news for Obama.
Florida
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%
Sample: 1,411 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.6%.
Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%
Sample: 1,127 Ohio voters. Margin of error: ±2.9%.
Pennsylvania
Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38%
Sample: 1,494 PA voters. Margin of error: ±2.5%
Obama is beating McCain by 9 points in Pennsylvania, which I think is a direct result of his hard-fought campaign there last month. And Obama is TIED with McCain in Florida and Ohio. That is GOOD news at this point with 7 months to go before the election.
Hillary supporters will likely point out that she outperforms Obama against McCain in Florida and Ohio, which she currently is. But considering Obama has been through a very rough two weeks, the fact that he is neck-and-neck with John McCain in Florida and Ohio is tremendous news. Because our campaign against McCain hasn't even started yet.
A key number from the crosstabs: In Pennsylvania, 31% of Hillary supporters say they will vote for John McCain if Obama is the nominee, and another 16% would be undecided or would not vote at all. In Florida, 36% of Hillary supporters say they will vote for John McCain, and in Ohio 30% say they will vote for John McCain. Why is this good news? Because the election is 7 months away and Obama, with Hillary's help, will have plenty of time to bring these Democrats back to his side. If Obama can bring these former Hillary supporters back into the Democratic fold, he will be well poised to win these states.
When you factor is Obama's strong showing in Western states, November looks good.
Obama has improved his numbers in all three states from the previous polls, conducted April 1.
UPDATE: Sorry. Here's the crosstabs.