Majority of pledged delegates is 1627, (discounting Fl and MI)
Well using Slate Delegate Calculator I give HRC an 80:20 blowout in Kentucky and West Virginia AND I give HRC a 20 point 60:10 win in Oregon, and Obama's total in delegates that night is 1629.
So on truly worst case scenario he has majority of delegates just, but that assumes he has zero delegates in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana as he gets less than 15% viability in EVERY district and she gets 86:14 blowouts both statewide and in every District.
HillaryMath after the fold...
Super Delegates are rolling in NY Times Declares Obama ahead in SuperDelegates. DemCon Watch has her still ahead by 0.5 of a Superdelegate at this stage, but including Fl and MI gives her a further net 10, at this rate he would overtake that additional lead in 2-3 days!
Now using "HillaryMath" the magic number for pledged delegates is 1,784 including Michigan and Florida.
Now any soloution to the Mi and Fl problem that still punishes the local politicians there which cased this mess but at the same time delivers a BHO nomination helps legitimise his victory in the eyes of diehard HRC supporters so lets see how the numbers play out.
Fl 69 BHO, 105 HRC, 13 JE.
MI 0 BHO, 73 HRC, 55 unpledged*
*unpledged assumed by most to be for BHO but in some of the wilder HRC scenario's they go to the convention unpledged and like Edwards 33 are then up for grabs.
Well immediatly in any scenario BHO gets the 69 from Florida and if they only get 1/2 a vote then Hillary's numbers shrink as well as does the winning post. Lets be a little more realistic with my original scenario for a start he meets viability in the 3 last contests, so lets say 65:35 HRC in all 3.
At this point it is 1729 for BHO, 1764 for HRC neither has a true pledged majority (1784) and the 55 uncommitted and 33 Edwards Delegates become important.
Now to get BHO over this "HillaryMath" number it needs an additional 55 delegates, now where have we seen that number before?
But that is the point in further phone-banking, leafletting campaigning etc etc, you introduce the Democratic Presidential nominee to voters right across the country, get them used to the idea of voting for him in November and at the same time there are easily enough potential further delegates in a sensible scenario in the remaining states to get him over the 1784 pledged delegates and be in a position to be generous in any possible compromise the DNC makes with Fl and Mi and still win, and take away any possible complaints from Hillary supporters of "we was robbed".