Two years ago, Hezbollah directly challenged the sovereignty of Lebanon by attacking Israel from Lebanon. They fired rockets at Israeli civiilian populations and then used the cover of fire to cross into Israel attacking and kidnapping Israeli soldiers. They did this without provocation and without known reason. Hezbollah never ceased firing at civilian populations throughout the entire conflict. International pressure demanded Israel end the war without Hezbollah disarming; I believed then that this was a mistake and I believe that events this week have shown my analysis to be correct.
Like many groups in the Middle East, Hezbollah combines political participation with arms. Allowing an extrajudicial army within your country is never a good idea but to allow opposition parties to have their own army... that is suicide.
This past week, the Lebanese government acted to take down the communications system linking Hezbollah and Syria and removed from the head of airport security in Beirut an official with ties to Hezbollah. There is evidence that this official was trying to secure the airport to smuggle Iranian arms into the country for Hezbollah just as they had before and during the Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah was displeased to say the least and organized a coup.
Under gun fire, Hezbollah took over parts of Beirut and forty people died before the Lebanese army stepped in and OVERRULED the government.
Relative calm prevailed in Beirut on Sunday after the Lebanese Armed Forces intervened in the ongoing dispute between the government and the opposition, reversing two key Cabinet decisions that had sparked the recent wave of violence.
The army has just castrated the Cabinet they are supposed to answer to.
What does this mean?
It means Nasrallah basically controls the government without the day to day hassle of running it.
Some are condemning what Hizbullah did this week as a coup d'etat, while others are defending it as a counter-putsch. That debate will not end soon, but there is no doubting that Lebanon's political status quo has been radically altered in a very few days. It is too early to predict where this will lead the country, but whereas the seat of actual Lebanese power has long been in doubt, for now at least it has a clear address: that of Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He may continue to shun any official position, but barring an unforeseen turn of events, the leader of the Lebanese resistance has just acquired a hitherto unprecedented amount of national political responsibility.
He used violence, the army caved in and overruled the people to whom they report and now he has more power.
Consider this.. Hezbollah started the last war with Israel without knowledge of the Lebanese government. Hezbollah, an extragovernmental army, took a democracy to war without the elected government's permission or ability to stop them. Regardless of the trappings of democracy, no democracy can exist under such threats of internal violence because at any moment, the armed group can simply force the government's hand.
Unless Hezbollah is disarmed, Lebanon will become a failed state, a military dictatorship with only the trappings of democracy.