This weekend the states of Colorado, Kansas, and Nevada hold their state conventions. In terms of pledged delegates, based on earlier caucus results Obama is expected to take 36/55 in Colorado, 23/32 in Kansas, and 13/25 in Nevada. Three things to watch for this weekend at these conventions:
- Will Obama pick up more pledged delegates than expected? In Iowa we saw some swings at later stages of the caucus process, but that was largely due to the impact of Edwards delegates which aren't as relevant here. Still, there may be a number of Clinton delegates who think that it is time to unite the party and rally around our nominee so an Obama pickup is not unrealistic.
- What will happen with the unpledged add-ons (new superdelegates)? Each state can select one. Based on the caucus results you might expect Obama to pick up the add-on in Colorado and Kansas, but Clinton pick up one in Nevada (she actually has more state delegates despite Obama's lead in national delegates). Things aren't so clear, though. Take Colorado. According to Rocky Mountain News (hat tip to DCW) there is a contest here between the current mayor of Denver, John Hickenlooper, and former mayor of Denver and Frederico Peña. Despite serving in Clinton's cabinet, Peña is supporting Obama whereas Hickenlooper is uncommmitted. I noted that Clinton has more state delegates in Nevada than Obama, but it is not a large lead. It is quite possible that some compromise candidate is selected for their add-on to promote party unity. One thing we've seen so far, add-ons are rarely a given.
- Will we hear from the news media how McCain cannot possibly win these states? McCain lost badly in all three of these states taking 19% in Colorado, 24% in Kansas, and 13% (a 3rd place finish) in Nevada. If the media seems so sure that Obama can't win West Virginia because he only took about 30%, they should be concerned about these states for McCain. In all seriousness, I think all three states are in play for Obama. A number of people have noted him doing well in Nevada and Colorado. Poblano shows on his fantastic website Obama winning Nevada 60% of the time and Colorado 56% of the time. He has him winning Kansas only 6% of the time, but consider this. Obama has roots in Kansas and the backing of popular governor Kathleen Sebelius. The reason McCain was trounced in Kansas was he was not trusted by the large number of evangelical voters there. As we read this week Novak is reporting they still don't trust McCain. At the very least if you buy the argument that Obama can't win West Virginia, you should believe McCain can't win Kansas.