Could the GOP even entertain finessing its nomination from McCain?
During the horrible month (Wright, Bittergate, and Wright Redux), McCain should have been polling in the low sixties (%), momentarily bolstered by all the hard-feelings Clintonistas had for Obama and Probamas had for Clinton back then, and by Independents' distaste for negative campaigning (see WI and NH).
But Senator McTreadwater never did. He ranged between 43 and 46%, and only polled at 50 against either Democratic candidate a handful of times.
Prediction:
Four weeks after we have our Nominee (that is after Senator Clinton bows out), McCain's numbers never again break 45%, ranging between 38% and 43% until Election Day, unless something completely unforeseen hurts Obama's candidacy. (Obama's ability to bounce back in GE polling makes me think that even if something unforeseen were to come up, the numbers would shift to "Undecided" not to McCain, and only temporarily.)
If I'm right about the McCain's lack of support being revealed when we truly have a binary contest, the GOP may soon start rumbling about replacing him. It would be the most dumbass thing the GOP did during this presidential campaign, but down-tioket candidates might come armed with polling and argue that the GOP would keep more seats in Congress--and more importantly, in the Senate--if it switched the name at the top of its ticket. This presupposes that an Obama-led Democratic ticket threatens seats once [read: yesterday] considered safe.
I will be looking for a clue, say, McCain releasing his health records. If he released them and they appeared negative, his departure and replacement will likely have already been determined.
McCain surely has defied the CW in one regard. It was thought that Republicans looked at the political climate and nominated their strongest candidate. After reversing decent positions (against torture, against the Bush tax cuts, etc.) and adopting a host of bad ones, he is reversing that CW every day.
When GE polling truly becomes binary, I think reality will catch up with Candidate McCain. Maybe the GOP mutiny will start then.
I may run out of popcorn and schadenfreude watching.