OK folks , this is a pretty quick and dirty massaging of the numbers.
Since Thursday isn't over , I'm starting with Obama's count of 1880 and accepting the Clinton number of 2210 (with the MS-1 win) as the final metric.
I'm also giving Clinton higher margins in her wins then I think will occur.
This is not about the popular vote - simply delegate totals.
I'm imagining that the supers in the upcoming contests wil follow the % victory exactly, and not factoring in population density, delegate districts , or urban vs,rural voting patterns - simply extrapolating from the percentages . Since Obama does better in urban districts with more delegates, this , combined with the high percentages I'm awarding Clinton probably underestimates Obama's actual strength . I'm aiming to see how close Obama could come to clinch (including FL and MI) under a less than rosy scenario.
At the end of the day on Wednesday, the magic number for Barack Obama (including FL and MI) was 330.
- Edwards endorsement Let's say 15 out of the 18 break for Obama. 1895- only 315 left.
- FL and MI on May 31. - Let's say in MI the suggested the 69/59 split is the final decision. Obama 1964 -- only 246 left.
FL: Let's say the Dean compromise (each pledged gets a half vote , supers get full votes, according to final percentages) goes through. Obama would get 40, as opposed to Clinton's 59. Obama now has 2004 - only 206 to go.
Remaining primaries:
Let's give Clinton a 65- 25 win in KY and a mind-blowing 75-25 in PR. On the other hand, Obama cruises in OR , SD and MT by 60-40 margins. (I warned you this was quick and dirty.) Again, the super's vote reflects exactly the percentages of their states.
KY has 51 delegates and 9 supers- Obama gets 21 total.
Obama- 2025 - only 185 left to clinch
OR has 65 - 52 pledged and 13 super. Obama gets 37
Obama 2062 -- only 148 left to clinch
PR has 63 - 55 pledged and 8 Super. Obama gets 15
Obama 2077 - only 133 left to clinch
SD has 23 -15 and 8. Obama gets 14
Obama 2091 -only 119 left to clinch
MT has 24 -- 16 and 8. Obama gets 14.
Obama 2105 - only 105 left to clinch
Superdelegates:
Since the win in North Carolina on May , Obama has picked up 35-40 Superdelegates, depending on what count you believe. Assuming people don't endorse on weekends that is approximately 6 per day. Factoring that forward, and assuming that no superdelegates switch from Hillary and taking out both Friday and Monday of the Memorial Day weekend - that gives us 11 days, (including today) or 66 delegates, leaving Obama at 2171, or 39 short of the Clinton-stated metric for nomination.
However, after the Edwards endorsement , the super delegates seem to be speeding up the process. I believe that on June 4th , the number of combined delegates in the Obama column will be greater than 2210.