Two days ago, on Thursday, Kos pointed out that Hillary and her supporters were experiencing the five stage of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance). Kos argued that Hillary and her supporters were just finishing stage three--bargaining. You can read Kos' post here.
Today, I have seen ample signs that Hillary and her supporters are in the midst of stage four: depression. My guess is that this stage will go on till Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Perhaps, Hillary and her supporters can accept Obama's victory shortly after Oregon delivers a big win for Obama and he claims victory in Iowa with a great speech.
Signs of Stage Four (Depression) Among Hillary and Her Supporters
I saw several signs of depression today among Hillary and her supporters.
First, there was an article about the downbeat tone of Hillary's campaign in the New York Times today, entitled A Subdued Clinton and A Subdued Audience The NYT remarked on the change in tone in the Clinton campaign:
With her candidacy running out of time — and perhaps air — the Clinton campaign has taken on a distinctly subdued mood.
Mrs. Clinton found herself largely ignored on Friday while a battle raged between Senator Barack Obama on one hand and Senator John McCain and President Bush on the other.
And despite coming off a large victory in West Virginia, and anticipating success in Kentucky on Tuesday, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign in recent days has encountered a series of disappointments, not the least of which was the endorsement of Mr. Obama by the influential women’s group Naral Pro-Choice America.
Famous for her 16-hour days, her unflagging energy and her willingness to shout into a microphone until her voice gives out, Mrs. Clinton finds herself encountering long odds and a dwindling bank account. (David Letterman recently joked that with her campaign $21 million in debt, she is at "the world’s most expensive fantasy camp.") And the new tone is palpable.
Second, Obama napped an extra delegate (and Clnton lost a delegate) in Nevada because HIllary's supporters did not show at the state convention today. As the Field noted in its report on the convention
Obama essentially reversed Clinton’s lead from the caucuses, capturing 55 percent of the state delegates to Clinton’s 45 percent.
The heavy turnout earned Obama one more delegate to the national convention, than previously expected based on the caucus results.
The final tally: Obama won 14 national delegates and Clinton won 11 national delegates. Under the caucus results, Obama was expected to win 13 national delegates to Clinton’s 12. Although Clinton won the caucuses, Obama out-performed her in rural Nevada and Washoe County.
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Some Clinton supporters have begun to give up and, despite being elected delegates, stayed home, while the Obama grassroots organization proved tireless, taking no prisoners, and grabbing another Democratic National Convention delegate away from the tired Clinton camp, for a net gain of +2.
Third and finally, there has been some noticeably movement in the Gallup poll. After Rev. Wright reappeared Obama had trouble getting a meaningful lead over Clinton. But today Obama is up 9 points over Clinton. The size of this lead suggests that perhaps some Hillary supporters have given up.
Stage Five (Accepetance of Obama's victory) is around the corner
I suspect that in the next few days, more superdelegates and more Democratic interest groups will get on the Obama bandwagon. I suspect that Hillary and her supporters will be entering the last stage of grief, acceptance, soon after the Oregon primary results are know. Accordingly, I think that there will be little protest when Obama launches his general election campaign that night in Iowa.