Obama has to be able to claim the majority of pledged delegates with MI and FL counted as-is. This is independent of the final allotments decided upon by the Rules or Credentials committee, which will undoubtedly result in an Obama majority. Demonstrating that Obama has the majority even using Clinton's ridiculous claims, is a major PR victory and the only way to get Clinton and her followers to STFU. The cannot be allowed an opening, even one that is illegal, unreasonable and unfair, to claim that the nomination was 'stolen'.
Here are the numbers we have to use to show them the door (I am using the numbers from the Obama campaign, which differ slightly from those of demconwatch):
Obama has 1612.5 pledged delegates (NOT counting the two Clinton pledged deleates who have said they will vote for Obama at the convention)
Obama will probably get 85 of the remaining 189 pledged delegates. (This is perhaps a bit conservative but the proportional rules mean that this could not increase by more than 2 or 3)
Total Obama pledged delegates before FL and MI:1697.5-well over the 1626.5 needed for the nomination if FL and MI are not counted at all
Follow me below for what happens when FL and MI are seated as-is.
Total needed for the nomination if FL and MI are seated as-is:1783
If Florida is seated as-is, Obama will get 67 delegates, so the new pledged delegate total for Obama would be 1764.5-18.5 delegates short of a simple majority
Next, let's throw the Edwards delegates into the mix. According to demconwatch, there are 20 outstanding Edwards delegates when MI and FL are counted. If, and this is a big if, all of those Edwards delegates, come out for Obama, we are home free and don't even have to worry about Michigan's uncommitted delegates. (This is a big if because I wonder about the stance of those Edwards delegates who haven't come over to Obama already.)
If the count is short when all Edwards delegates are counted, then we have to consider what happens with the 55 uncommitted delegates from MI. And this is where it gets confusing, because it is unclear what Clinton means by as-is. There are 3 options: nobody gets the uncommitted delegates, the uncommitted delegates are free agents, essentially pseudo-superdelegates, or the uncommitted delegates are assigned by the Michigan State Democratic Party. I don't think even Clinton has the chutzpah to claim that she should get the uncommitted delegates.
Under the first option, the number of uncommitted delegates is subtracted from the total number of pledged delegates and the number needed for the nomination is reduced to 1755 and Obama has the nomination.
The second option is probably not feasible because I don't think there are really any persons already designated as uncommitted delegates. They are kind of virtual delegates.
Under the third option, the fate of the uncommitted delegates gets decided by the Michigan Democratic Party. The state party has already had the first level of its convention
and assigned 18 of 36 uncommitted delegates to Obama delegates and 18 more to union-backed delegates. These Obama delegates are soft delegates, as they were not vetted with the same strictness as if they had been on the ballot. The union-backed delegates are up for grabs. The UAW, which is presumably the major union player in Michigan, has not endorsed either candidate. The allocation of the rest of the delegates should have taken place on the 17th but I haven't seen any report of what happen. If the state convention allotments stand, then Obama has enough for a simple majority, and we will have won yet another, and hopefully the last, PR battle in the multitude ways to declare Obama the winner.
So, as you can see, there is still some uncertainty if we will be able to beat Clinton at her own game, as it depends on how she counts the uncommitted delegates in Michigan. But I hope I have given people enough ammunition for countering many of the arguments coming from the Clinton camp.