Cross-posted at Election Inspection
Oregon Delegate Projection here
Well, it's time for me to put out my projection for Kentucky, and if the primary in West Virginia was any sign, it's going to be a pretty big Clinton win in the Bluegrass state. Fortunately, most people have already prepared for this and will not be surprised by the Clinton win, and Obama will not do as badly here as in West Virginia (since Kentucky is better educated and has twice as many African Americans as West Virginia), even still it's not going to be pretty for Obama.
Let's get started:
CD-01
Delegates at Stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District Analysis: This district is poor, rural, not very well educated, and white. In fact, this district is only a little bit better for Obama than WV-03 where Clinton racked up a massive 77% of the viable vote (not counting Edwards who got 7% of the vote), Clinton will have absolutely no problem hitting 70% of the vote for a 4-1 split here.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District Analysis: Another poor, rural, uneducated, white district (though definitely not as bad as KY-01). I believe that Clinton should get over 70% of the vote and get a 4-1 split, but this district also has the college town of Bowling Green and is younger than CD-01, so Obama does have a decent chance at getting over 30% of the vote and forcing a 3-2 split instead.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 8 (Clinton 4, Obama 4)
District Profile
District Analysis: This district contains the state's largest city, Louisville, it's also the best educated, most affluent, and has the largest population of African Americans in Kentucky. Obama's best chance to hold down Clinton's margins in the state will be here. While I do have Clinton winning the popular vote here, there's also a good chance that Obama gets the popular vote here as well. Either way, neither candidate will get the 56.25% of the vote here necessary for a 5-3 split.
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District Profile
District Analysis: Psifighter37 likens this district to IN-05 and while there are some similarities, one of the most glaring differences is the education level (IN-05 has a 35% rate of bachelor's degrees while KY-04 has only a 21% rate). Even so, we both reach the same basic conclusion, Clinton will win the majority of the popular vote but nowhere near the 70% needed for a 4-1 split.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 4, Obama 1)
District Profile
District Analysis: Ladies and gentlemen, meet Barack Obama's worst district in the entire country. It's extremely poor, extremely white, extremely uneducated (with only 12.6% of people having bachelor's degrees and only 68% of people there having a high-school degree). Clinton will have absolutely no problem getting 70% of the vote here, but fortunately for Obama, there are enough younger people here that it should keep him viable in the district (above 15%)
CD-06
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 4, Obama 2)
District Profile
District Analysis: This district contains the state capital of Frankfort, and is probably going to be one of Obama's best districts in the state. Unfortunately though, it's not going to be enough to stop Clinton from getting 58.25% of the vote.
Subtotal: Clinton 23, Obama 11
Statewide Delegates:
At-Large: Clinton 7, Obama 4
PLEOs: Clinton 4, Obama 2
Total Delegates: Clinton 34, Obama 17
Popular Vote: Clinton: 62%, Obama 31%, Everyone else 7%