On April 4, I posted a diary entitled "Obama Folks, Feeling Anxious –– Lets Do The Math" where I put forth Pledged Delegate predictions and how they would effect the number of Super-Delegates each candidate needed to clinch the nomination. I updated these predictions and evaluated my performance after Pennsylvania on May 2 in a diary entitled "Super-Delegate Math - When Will Obama Clinch the Nomination?" Now its time for me to evaluate my predictions up through West Virginia, update my predictions for Kentucky and Oregon, and make my not-so-bold prediction about when the fat lady will sing for Obama based pledged and super-delegate math.
For those of you who are math junkys like me and want to know when Obama will be our nominee, mathematically speaking, follow me over the jump /\ for what I expect will be my last Primary Diary.
PAST:
Before we get into the predictions, just a little review on how my past predictions panned out from Pennsylvania through West Virginia, in terms of both percentages and pledged delegate counts. Not to crow about my track record, but I don’t think I did too bad until West Virginia. My system of poll watching, trend watching and gut feeling, is not as complex and accurate as the Pablano’s model, but it seems to be working pretty well. But, I’ll let you all decide.
The numbers in (#) are my past predictions and the numbers in bold are the actual results. Feel free to double check my April 4 and May 2 predictions here and here.
First Up:
Pennsylvania: 4-22-08
Obama: April 4 - (46%) & (73) pledged delegates
Actual - 45.4% & 73 pledged delegates
Clinton: April 4 - (54%) & (85) pledged delegates
Actual - 54.6% & 85 pledged delegates
On The Nose!
Next Up:
Guam: 4-3-08
Obama: April 4 - (35%) & (1) pledged delegate
May 2 - (35%) & (1) pledged delegate
Actual - 2 pledged delegates
Clinton: April 4 - (65%) & (3) pledged delegates
May 2 - (65%) & (3) pledged delegate
Actual - 2 pledged delegates
A little off the mark with Guam. Thought this would be primarily a name recognition contest. Forgot about Obama’s Indonesian background.
On To:
Indiana: 5-6-08
Obama: April 4 - (49%) & (36) pledged delegate
May 2 - (48%) & (35) pledged delegate
Actual - 49% & 34 pledged delegates
Clinton: April 4 - (51%) & (36) pledged delegates
May 2 - (52%) & (37) pledged delegate
Actual - 51% & 38 pledged delegates
Should of stuck with my April 4 percentages and my May 2 delegate counts, and I would have been almost on the mark. But what’s a few percentages or a delegate or two among friends.
Oh Boy Its:
North Carolina: 5-6-08
Obama: April 4 - (58%) & (67) pledged delegate
May 2 - (54%) & (64) pledged delegate
Actual - 56% & 67 pledged delegates
Clinton: April 4 - (42%) & (48) pledged delegates
May 2 - (46%) & (51) pledged delegate
Actual - 42% & 48 pledged delegates
Should have stuck with my April 4 numbers, they were pretty much dead on except I forgot about the Edwards’ factor.
Now Some Not-So-Pretty Numbers From:
West Virginia: 5-13-08
Obama: April 4 - (40%) & (11) pledged delegate
May 2 - (40%) & (11) pledged delegate
Actual - 26% & 8 pledged delegates
Clinton: April 4 - (60%) & (17) pledged delegates
May 2 - (60%) & (17) pledged delegate
Actual - 67% & 20 pledged delegates
I admit it, Goofed on this one pretty bad. Off by a combined total of 21% and 6 delegates. I knew this wasn’t going to be close, but I thought a 20 point margin was pretty safe. But, to be fair to myself, very few if any saw this Clinton margin coming.
PRESENT:
So where do we stand now? According to the Kos home page on May 198 at 8:30 pm EST:
Obama –
Pledged Delegates: 1612.5
Super Delegates: 300.5
Total Delegates: 1913
Obama Needs: 112
Clinton –
Pledged Delegates: 1442.5
Super Delegates: 276.5
Total Delegates: 1719
Clinton Needs: 306
Uncommitted Pledged Delegates Remaining = 189
Uncommitted Super Delegates Remaining = 219
I posted the date and time of these numbers because by Diary post time, they will probably change as Obama Supers continue to flow in. But, for the sake of predicting the when and how Obama secures the nomination, these numbers will serve as a good a baseline as any.
FUTURE:
Now on to the predictions! First Up:
Kentucky: 5-20-08
Kentucky is of course Clinton Country. Not many recent polls. SUSA's 3-31 poll showed Clinton +29, however a lot has happened since then. After West Virginia, I feel I should be cautious in predicting anything but a +30 margin for Clinton. But most pundits are saying Kentucky won’t be as favorable to Clinton as WV, and Obama should benefit from some Clinton voters staying home due to the fact that Obama has basically got the nomination in the bag. So all things considered, I’ll stick with my May 2 prediction of Clinton +24 with a +13 pledged delegate result in her favor.
Kentucky:
My #s:
Obama: 38%; 19 pledged; 1631.5 total pledged; 1932 total delegates
Clinton: 62%; 32 pledged; 1474.5 total pledged; 1751 total delegates
Obama - +157 total pledged; +181 total delegates
On To Predicting:
Oregon: 5-20-08
Neighboring Washington State has a similar demographic and Obama clobbered her there with a +37 point victory. Also, rumors are that he is getting a lot of new registers in this State. But, the only poll I’ve seen so is SUSA’s 5-2 poll which shows Obama +6. Have not seen a more recent poll, but today’s huge Obama event in Oregon combined with Obama’s renewed momentum has me uping my May 2 prediction of Obama +10 and +8 on pledged delegates.
Oregon:
My #s:
Obama: 58%; 31 pledged; 1662.5 total pledged; 1963 total delegates
Clinton: 42%; 21 pledged; 1495.5 total pledged; 1772 total delegates
Obama - +167 total pledged; +191 total delegates
Based on the above delegate numbers, here are some points regarding where Obama and Clinton will likely be after Tuesday:
Point 1 - Obama’s 1662.5 pledged delegate total means he will have passed the 1622 pledged delegate majority mark. This will mean the Pelosi and Carter Super-Delegate Club will be moving into the Obama camp.
Point 2 - Obama’s overall delegate total of 1963 means he will only need 62 more delegates to reach the magic 2025 needed to clinch the nomination. If we consider adding the the Pelosi, Carter and other Super-Delegates he probably will only need around 50 delegates.
Point 3 - Clinton’s overall delegate total of 1772 means she will need 253 more delegates to reach the magic 2025 needed to clinch the nomination. Since there will be less than 219 Super-Delegates left at this point, likely a lot less, she would need all remaining Supers plus over 34 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates to reach 2025. Ain’t Gonna Happen!
Bottom Line: Within a few days, or perhaps a few hours, after the May 20 primary results are in, it is likely that Obama will gain enough Super-Delegates to mathematically clinch the nomination, either by drying up the Super-Delegate pool so that there will not be enough total delegates left for Clinton to reach 2025, or by Obama reaching 2025.
God, I Love Obama Math!
Anyone Wanna Venture A Guess When Obama Will Be Our Nominee? See Poll!