Delegate math is getting complicated everyday. There is a scenario in which both candidates may end up with equal pledged delegates. It is tied to many "if"s but it is a likely scenario with an ever increasing probability. More below the fold...
Even though Florida and Michigan are currently counted out there is a big push from Clinton-camp to have the delegates seated. As reported by DemConWatch in their article, the challenges to the DNC decisions on Florida and Michigan will be heard by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) on May 31st. This committee is made up of 12 Clinton supporters and 8 Obama supporters. 10 members have not declared support or endorsed any candidates. Among these undecided members, one member is from Michigan and another member served in the Clinton administration. Note that the committee needs 15 votes for a majority decision. Clinton camp is missing only 3 votes. (15 for majority since the case for each state will be voted separately. The members from FL, MI cannot vote for a case against their own state. That leaves 29 members to decide on the fate of these states. FL member is supporting Obama, MI member is undecided.)
If RBC decides in their meeting to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates the math will change dramatically. That is the reason Clinton campaign has not quit. Their expectation is not that Obama will crash and burn but there is a likelihood that Clinton will get her way and close the delegate lead to challenge the supers and even the famous Pelosi club to support her.
How will this happen?
Currently the pledge delegate count is 1489 (O), 1338 (C)
There are 9 races left. My estimation is quite rudimentary but serves the purpose. According to my estimates based on current polls and opinions, the remaining races will add 184 (O), 224 (C) delegates bringing the total to 1673 (O), 1562 (C). With Obama leading by 111 pledged delegates, he will undoubtedly get the nomination.
Now if we add the Florida and Michigan delegates, this interesting scenario reveals itself.
Florida delegates 67 (O), 105 (C)
Michigan delegates 0 (O), 73 (C)
Total: 1740 (O), 1740 (C)
If we include the superdelegates, Clinton will be ahead. Florida and Michigan superdelegate endorsements stand at 5 (O), 15 (C).
Adding all up,
1989 (O), 2021 (C)
In this scenario, everything is left up to the supers to decide. What would they look at? Electability? Popular vote? The states that count?
Sounds familiar?
Note 1: This is the worst case scenario. Any other decision will favor Obama.
Note 2: My estimates for the remaining 9 contests are quite conservative (I am an Obama supporter)
Note 3: According to a freep article, Michiganders-for-Obama were able to capture half of the 36 uncommitted delegates that were up for grabs on April 19th Michigan district conventions. The rest of the delegates will be elected on May 17th. Even with this piece of information, a tie is still possible. The article states that the rest of the uncommitted delegates are suspected to be supporting Clinton.