OK, before going on, I should clarify that I'm separating add-on delegates from currently existing supers who haven't already pledged to anyone. At any rate, I just ran the numbers, and barring some incredible collapse like Oregon or Puerto Rico going 80/20 Clinton, I believe Obama can clinch the nomination without having one more superdelegate commit. The crunching is below.
Right now, according to Demconwatch, Obama needs 108 delegates to get to 2025. With his lead in OR mostly canceling out Clinton's lead in KY, Obama should be able to get close to 50 of the 103 delegates distributed today. Let's say he gets 48 and Clinton gets 55. That gets him down to 60 needed.
There are 41 add ons remaining. Obama leaning states AK (1), GA (2), WY (1), HI (1), ME (1), MN (1), MS (1), WI (1), ID (1), IO (1), VA (2), WA(2), NC (2), OR(1), and NE (1) should all go to him; the 2's are all in states that went pretty overwhelmingly for him, so he should get at least 17-18 out of the 19 remaining. SD/MT are likely wins for him two and they get one each and PA/TX were close enough losses that 1 or 2 out of the 6 add ons there is a possibility. 20 add ons doesn't seem unrealistic. The count then is 40 needed.
PR has 55 delegates. Let's assume Clinton wins that big and gets 33 of the 55 (60%). The count is then 18. South Dakota and Montana have a combined 31 delegates and Obama is expected to win both. 18-13 is a bit of a stretch, but it's quite possible.
So Obama could get to the magic number without requiring a groundswell of superdelegates - remember if Obama falls one or two short, there still are 171 outstanding unpledged SDs, and 6 of them (OK 8 total, but 2 are Obama supporters) are members of the Pelosi Club.
So, you ask, what about MI/FL? Yes Obama could get to 2025 easily with at least 165 superdelegates staying neutral, but what about the rules committee?
Let's see how that looks. Here are my assumptions about the states:
(1) The 69/59 split or something close to it happens in MI as it has the support of MI politicians.
(2) FL is given a 50% haircut and Obama gets Edwards' delegates.
If that happens, Obama gets 59 pledged delegates from Michigan and 40 pledged from Florida. Obama has 5 SDs pledged to him already from MI and FL. The new magic number is 2162.5.
In this case, he would need some more delegates. He'd be at 2134 delegates, meaning he'd need 28 endorsements out of the pool of 201 (there are 15 unpledged SD's from each FL and MI).
So without Florida and Michigan, Obama most likely doesn't need anymore superdelegates. With them, a 173-28 break in favor of Clinton would be enough. In either case, Obama can get to the magic number without a groundswell of endorsements making it look like Clinton is being pushed out. I'm willing to wait a few more weeks in order to not create that feeling.