After the drubbing Childers handed out in (MS-01) by 8 points in a bigtime Republican leaning district, is it really such a surprise that the most recent poll shows former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) beating newly appointed senator Roger Wicker by 8 points in Mississippi in today's DSCC internal poll?
Ambinder makes some very interesting comments on the flip, read on...
Yes it is an internal poll commissioned by the DSCC. But here's Ambinder about why he is making an exception to his rule not to bother posting partisan polls:
Even if the DSCC were inclined to fudge the poll (or their pollster was) -- no evidence that they have or will, but I'm just saying -- they wouldn't show their candidate in the lead by that much. Expectations are raised -- and if future polls consistently show Musgrove behind Wicker, we'll know that (a) the DSCC poll was misleading or (b) Wicker has regained a lead. The DSCC poll is consistent with Democratic energy in the state, with Republican pessimism, and with Musgrove's broad popularity.
(5/15-18, likely voters):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
Musgrove's favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14. In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker's homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43.
So Wicker loses a seat he would have otherwise kept pretty easily to take the job that Lott (R-K Street) gave up to take a lucrative position before the end of 2007 so he wouldnt have to deal with the new prohibitions on lobbying passed by the Dem majority.
Wicker is now in serious trouble. Musgrove is a popular former governor, and has the name and cash to make this a serious race.
And Barack will get the black vote up at least 10% over their 2004 numbers (see, i.e., the wonderful diary by DavidNYC last week titled Could Barack Win Mississippi?)
It's kind of like the Pubs giving up the 2 House seats in New Mexico (Wilson and Pearce) all for the honor of getting drubbed by Udall for the Senate, in another seat that we had little chance of taking if the incumbent (Domenici) wanted to keep it.
It's all turning up roses kids.
Mississippi has now joined:
- MN (Coleman vs. Franken),
- ME (Allen vs. Collins),
- OR (Smith vs. Merkley/Novick), and
- AK (Stevens vs. Begich)
as serious 2nd tier pick-up opportunities.
Getting to 60 is a might just be a possibility afterall. Goodbye Lieberman, and good riddance.