Oregon: Obama 57-Clinton 43
Kentucky: Clinton 60-Obama 35
Details below the fold
Oregon
OR-01
This distrct is mostly Washington County, which is the largere, faster growing, better educated and more liberal of the two large suburban Portland-area counties. Since 2002, this fast-growing district has actually lost over 5,000 Republicans while gaining nearly 35,000 Democrats; two-thirds of that gain has come in the last four months. The part of Multnomah County in the district is highly educated and very Democratic. Together they will cast nearly 80% of the vote in the Democratic primary and they will cast it heavily for Obama. Obama will win this district, the question is by how much. If he breaks 64.3%, he earns a fifth delegate.
Obama 58.7%, 4 delegates
Clinton 41.3%, 3 delegates
OR-02
The most populous county in the vast, rural second district is Jackson County on the California border. It cast 22.7% of its ballots for Dennis Kucinich in the '04 primary, the second most of any county in the state. Deschutes County, home of Bend, Oregon and the second largest county in this rural district, has seen the fifth highest growth (by percent) in democratic registrations; only Washington, Multnomah (Portland), Lane (home of University of Oregon) and Benton (home of Oregon State) have seen a greater increase. Both are solidly but not overwhelmingly Republican, and Kerry did significantly better in both counties in '04 than Gore did in 2000. The district as a whole is the most "working-class white" district in Oregon, but Democrats here are far more liberal than those in Appalachia. I give him the victory here, but only because SUSA has given him a consistent lead outside of the Portland area.
Obama 52.8%, 3 delegates
Clinton 47.2%, 2 delegates
OR-03
Portland is the most liberal city in the state and one of the most liberal in the nation. Multnomah County was the only one of Oregon's to vote for the medicial marijuana initiative in 2004, and 60% of resident voted against the state's marriage amendment that same year. Barack Obama will win this district and win it big, but the more conservative working-class subsurbs of Clackamas County could keep his margin around. If he breaks 61.2%, he wins six delegates; 72.2% nets him seven.
Obama 61.4%, 6 delegates
Clinton 38.6%, 3 delegates
OR-04
Not only does the 4th district contain the city of Eugene and the University of Oregon, but it also reaches into Benton County to take in some of Corvallis, which is home to Oregon State. Benton County could be Obama's best in the state; in 2004, Kucinich carried 30% of the vote here. Bush actually won this district 49% to 44% in 200, but Kerry carried it by around 1,200 votes four years later. Obama will win this district, and he could break 60% here, but I doubt he will carry the 64.3% he needs for a 5-2 delegate split.
Obama 57.1%, 4 delegates
Clinton 42.9%, 3 delegates
OR-05
Clackamas County is a good deal more conservative than its larger neighbor Washington County. Bush carried the county 2000 and again by a larger margin in 2004, when 60% of Clackamas county voters voted for the Oregon marriage amdendment. Neighboring Marion County is even more conservative. The district is the only one in the state which did not move toward the Democratic presidential candidate from 2000 to 2004. That said, it does contain most of the dormitories of Oregon State University, as well as liberal Lincoln County. I expect Obama to win here, but not with the 58.4% he needs to take a majority of delegates.
Obama 53.8%, 3 delegates
Clinton 46.2%, 3 delegates
Oregon at large and pledged pleo:
There are 12 at large and 6 pledged PLEO delegates. Obama gets 7 at large delegates if he breaks 54.2%, 4 PLEOS if he breaks 58.4%, and 8 at large if he breaks 62.5%
Obama 57.2%, 3 PLEOS, 7 at large
Clinton 42.8%, 3 PLEOS, 5 at large
So for Oregon, we have: Obama 30, Clinton 22. Obama could easily take the fourth PLEO or a fourth delegate from OR-05. On the other hand, Clinton could keep him below 61.2% in OR-03 and take an extra delegate for herself. I don't think she'll win OR-02, but it is possible.
Kentucky
KY-01
This is a really awful district for Obama. The only things going for him here are the district's non-negligible black population (7.2%) and the fact that it is near his home state of Illinois (which means that it is likely that significant number of the districts voters are Illinois natives). Hurting him here is the fact that the district's Democratic registration is the highest in the state at 63%. Believe it or not, this R+10 district was D+00 back in the late '90s after Clinton carried it twice.
Clinton 66.3%, 4 delegates
Obama 28.0%, 1 delegate
KY-02
The 2nd district has a 5.7% black population, which is slightly less than the state average, and a median income of $35,724, which is slighltly more than the state average. The keys to this district are (1) can Obama outperform demographics in Daviess County, like he did in the Evansville area of Indiana, (2) can Obama turn out the college-age vote in Warren County, and (3) can Obama do well among voters affiliated with the military bases in Hardin County. I think he'll perform well enough to keep Clinton from a 4-1 split
Clinton 63.9%, 3 delegates
Obama 30.5% 2 delegates
KY-03
Obama will win Jefferson County and the third district convincingly. Here's why: Obama won PA-14, a Pittsburgh-based district which has nearly the same black population by percentage as KY-03, by a 52-48 margin. However, PA-14 is solidly Democratic (D+22), while KY-03 is, and has been since at least the 1940's, marginally Democratic territory (D+2). Most of the white voters in KY-03 are Republican, while just about everybody in PA-14 is a Democrat. So the electorate in KY-03 will be substantially more African American than the electorate in PA-14 was. Furthermore, KY-03 has a higher median income than PA-14. Obama will win by at least 10,000 votes.
Obama 54.7%, 5 delegates
Clinton 43.2%, 3 delegates
KY-04
This district looks at first glance to be pretty decent for Obama, with its above average income levels. However, most of the wealthy voters here are Republicans. So while Obama will win Oldham and maybe even Boone County, he'll still get trounced here. He won't get out of the teens in many of the Appalchian counties, and he struggle to reach 30% on the rural bluegrass. I think there is even a chance Obama will fall short of 30% here, but I don't think he'll lose the second delegate.
Clinton 62.3%, 3 delegates
Obama 33.8%, 2 delegates
KY-05
The fifth is the worst district in the country for Obama. With a median household income of $21,915, it is the poorest second poorest district in the country behind NY-16 (WV-03 is the next at $25,630). A staggering 28.1% of residents fall below the poverty line. Only 1.1% of the district's residents are black, and 29.5% identify their ancestry as "USA". The district is the least Democratic in the state by registration, but it contains some of its most reliably Democratic Counties; there are four coal-mining counties in Eastern Kentucky which have voted Democratic in every presidential election since the Great Depression (including 1972 and 1984). Maybe Obama is viable here, maybe he isn't. In any event, Clinton is getting at least four delegates from the fifth.
Clinton 76.9%, 4 delegates
Obama 15.8%, 1 delegate
KY-06
The counties around Lexington and Frankfort are relatively wealthy, and the district is 8.2% black, so Obama will outperform his statewide numbers in the 6th. However, we're still in Kentucky, and good means 40%. That's about what Obama will get. If Clinton can garner 58.4% of the Clinton-Obama vote, she'll take four delegates; otherwise, the district will split 3-3.
Clinton 56.4%, 4 delegates
Obama 40.1%, 2 delegates
Kentucky at-large and pledged pleo:
Clinton picks up an extra pledged pleo at 58.4%, and extra at large delegates at 59.1% and 68.2% of the Clinton-Obama vote. She's not going to beat Obama 3-1 in Kentucky, so that's all we have to worry about.
Clinton 60.3%, 4 pleos, 7 alternates
Obama 35.3%, 2 pleos, 5 alternates
For Kentucky, we have: Clinton 32, Obama 19. A slight shift for Obama, however, will get him a second delegate out of KY-01 and a third from KY-06, and an extra at large delegate. Clinton would then win 30-21. A slight shift for Clinton knocks Obama out of viability in the 5th and keeps KY-03 at 4-4. A mere 1.5% swing in the results could mean a four delegate shift from one candidate to another.