A new Gallup poll indicates that Senator Obama is now competitive among women, whites, and the less educated.
Support among Democratic voters for Sen. Obama has increased from a four-percentage-points lead in early May to a sixteen percentage-point lead, his highest percentage-point lead thus far.
In the period including May 1st -13th Senator Obama led Senator Clinton 49% to 45% in the Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference among Democratic voters and voters leaning Democratic.
In the period including May 16th –May 18th Senator Obama outpaced Senator Clinton by a margin of 55% to 39%.
Obama Swamps Clinton Among Young Voters and Others
Gallup's May 16-18 polling results indicates Obama’s increasing margin is expands through most demographic categories of Democratic voters.
Moreover,the recent upthrust in Sen. Obama’s lead has further solidified his support among certain groups that were already highly supportive of his candidacy.
Among men, 18- to 29-year-olds, postgrads, and upper-income Democrats who are now overwhelmingly in his camp. Obama is currently favored among by a 2-to-1 margin, or better, over Sen. Clinton.
Among 18 to 29 years old: Obama leads Clinton by a ratio of 74% to 25%
Among voters with postgraduate degrees: Obama leads Clinton by a ratio of 65% to 31%
Among voters with monthly incomes of $5,000.00 or more: Obama leads by a margin of 64% to 33%
Among men: Obama outpaces Clinton by a margin of 63% to 31%
Clinton's Stalwart Support Drops
At the same time, support for Clinton among some of her traditionally stalwart support groups -- women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics -- has fallen below 50%.
Senators Clinton and Obama are tied among Non-Hispanic whites at 47%
Senator Clinton trails Senator Obama at 47% to 49%.
Among voters with a High School graduates or less education: Obama and Clinton are matched 47% to 46% respectfully.
Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton by a margin of 51% to 44% among Hispanic voters.
And among Easterners Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton by 52% to 43%.
Women 50 and Older
The only major demographic group still supporting Sen. Clinton to the tune of 51% or more is women aged 50 and older. This group's preferences have changed little during May, at the same time that Clinton's support among younger men (those 18 to 49) has declined by nearly 10 points.
Senator Clinton’s support among men aged 18 through 49 has decreased from 35% to 26%.
Among men aged 50 or older her support has decreased from 43% to 39%.
Among women aged 18 through 49 Sen. Clinton’s support has decreased from 45% to 41%.
And among women aged 50 and over her support has fallen from 55% to 52%.
Bottom Line
After nearly 20 grueling weeks on the campaign trail since he shook up the Democratic primary race by winning the Iowa caucuses, Obama has finally stretched his lead over his chief rival into the teens.
Having previously captured nearly the maximum level of support from black voters, Obama's latest gains have come from a broad spectrum of rank-and-file Democrats.
At least for now, he has expanded his position as the preferred candidate of men, young adults, and highly educated Democrats, and has erased Clinton's advantages with most of her prior core constituency groups, including women, the less well-educated, and whites.
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