I have been working the phones (and on email) all day to get some insider information. I have just spoken with a few of the party leaders on the island spearheading both the Obama and Clinton campaigns, and here I present the information they have given me to share with the blogosphere about the current situation on the island.
For those of you who don't know me, I worked as a community organizer for many years in the mainland and the island. I also worked as National Adviser to General Wesley Clark on Hispanic and Latino Issues in 2004. During my scholarly years at Yale, Harvard and Stanford, I have extensively researched Puerto Rico issues. I have helped promote debates on the status issue both at Harvard and Yale. I also advised members of the Natural Resources Committee in the Senate, when they were considering the status issue. I am non partisan regarding Puerto Rico issues, but I am in favor of a non territorial solution as a final solution for the island, which has been recognized in federal and constitutional law as either independence, associated republic or statehood. Here I present the inside information I have just received from some of the party leaders on the island.
First, the two parties agree that people who support Obama on the island will do so for any of the following four reasons:
- They identify with his eloquent stump speech
- They favor the current commonwealth status as a final solution to the status issue
- They are in favor of current pro-commonwealth Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila
- They are seeking political opportunities given that Obama is expected to become the Democratic nominee
I'll go through the factors one by one to show why Obama is unlikely to win in Puerto Rico:
- The effect of Obama's eloquence is nullified by the fact that most Puerto Ricans don't speak English and they will not identify with the Civil Rights rhetoric of his speeches. Puerto Rico has never had to go through a civil rights era because the institution of slavery was never as pervasive as it was in the United States and slavery as an institution was dismantled early on. Thus, appeals to racial unity will likely have limited appeal on the island. Moreover, while the majority of Puerto Ricans believe that they are the product of the Taino, African and White heritage, there is still a proportion (albeit, small) of Puerto Ricans who will sadly not vote for an African American candidate
- Obama's position to support the current commonwealth status as a final solution to the status issue has aligned him with the separatist segment of the pro-commonwealth PDP but alienated him with everyone else (independence, free association and statehood supporters). As a statehood leader put it,
"Every statehooder knows that a vote for Hillary is a vote against the colony." (translation)
A pro-commonwealth leader told me,
"It is a sad state of affairs that many will vote for Clinton to repudiate our Governor" (translation)
Adding insult to injury, Obama proposed a constitutional assembly to resolve the status issue rather than a plebiscite or referendum. In essence, from the point of view of non commonwealthers, he was putting the future of Puerto Rico in the hands of commonwealthers who would hold veto power in a constitutional assembly. Note that the pro-commonwealth PDP is split among various sectors:
i) those who are separatist and believe that Puerto Rico is a separate nation (e.g., pro-commonwealth Governor Acevedo Vila and his supporters
ii) those who support a permanent relationship with the United States under the commonwealth status.
Obama's position has alienated the latter such that at best, Obama can only reach out to 25-30% of the total electorate.
No failure of the Obama campaign is more evident than their poor understanding of Puerto Rico issues and not to heed advice from non partisan experts (including me) on the Puerto Rico situation. Instead, the campaign followed the advice of SEIU leader Dennis Rivera and Congressman Luis Gutierrez, which was biased to say the least, given their longstanding relationship with the pro-separatist wing of the pro-commonwealth PDP. What is most surprising is that in his first visit to the island, Obama responded to a question about the status issue with "I don't know." This is surprising given that he represents a large Puerto Rican constituency in Chicago and because Congressman Gutierrez who supports Obama and has a high ranking position on the campaign committee represents that Puerto Rican constituency as well!
- Obama's endorsement of Governor Acevedo Vila means that he will only be able to obtain the support of the Acevedo Vila forces. The Governor who has been indicted on 19 counts of corruption has the lowest popularity rating of any Governor in the history of the island. His supporters claim that there is a political witch hunt by the biased feds supposedly in cahoots with the statehooders against him, which is inconsonant with his statement at the US Congress when he accused former pro-statehood Governor Pedro Rossello of corruption:
"Fortunately the federal authorities did their job in investigating and prosecuting the criminals and the people of Puerto Rico judged the statehood party in the polls. It is amazing that even today the leaders of the statehood party are unwilling to recognize the depth of the corruption, and continue to try to spin the issue as one of political persecution. They have gone as far as accusing the US District Attorney's Office for the District of Puerto Rico of promoting prosecutions just for political reasons. They have openly said that the Federal Court system and local authorities are part of a conspiracy to criminalize statehood, again showing an utter disregard for the truth. They showed no remorse!"
Despite his inconsistencies in defending himself, the Governor still has a strong base of support among his most ardent supporters (at most, approx. 32% of the electorate) who believe this witch hunt argument, but it is hardly enough of a base to win an election assuming a high voter turnout. Complicating matters is that many believe that they should boycott the primary to show the federal government that they should not intervene in Puerto Rico's internal affairs (which by the way, by law, they have every right to do so). As a PPD leader told me today:
"It's tough because with everything that is going on we know we will lose. The question is whether we can narrow the gap enough to beat expectations?" (translation)
Clinton, on the other hand, has built a broad-based coalition of the remaining elements of the pro-statehood NPP, pro-independence PIP and pro-commonwealth PDP, which by the way has been trying to destitute the current Governor because they are afraid of losing the upcoming gubernatorial elections. Governor Acevedo-Vila, on the other hand, is using the Obama-Clinton primary as a way to try to revive his political ambitions because should Obama win he can then say that it was all thanks to his efforts. In addition, it is an effective device for drawing attention away from an indictment with 19 counts of corruption! As a statehood leader told me:
"A vote for Obama is a vote for Anibal's (the current pro-commonwealth Governor of Puerto Rico) corruption." (translation)
- The only high profile statehooder to endorse Obama is Pedro Pierluisi, the candidate for Resident Commissioner. But he is doing it for political reasons as the letter Obama wrote to him suggests:
"I have learned a lot about Puerto Rico in the last few months. I believe the commonwealth status can be a permanent solution to the status issue but should the Puerto Rican people choose statehood, I will respect that option... I guarantee you that as President I will do everything I can for Puerto Rico according to the constitution and federal laws"
For those of you who may not know a lot about the Puerto Rico issue, the highlighted line is the kicker. Statehooders believe the commonwealth status is NOT a permanent status. In fact, they believe the commonwealth status is a colonial status, although a more legally appropriate way to put it is that it is a territorial status. But the point is that no real statehooder would support the commonwealth status as a final resolution to the status issue because that would be admitting that statehood can never happen. Thus, the only conclusion we can draw from this is that Pedro Pierluisi is doing so for political reasons: Since Obama is likely to win the Democratic presidential nomination, he wants to make sure he gets some perks -- whatever they may be -- for having supported the winning candidate.
These points focus on how the perceived strengths of Obama as a candidate in Puerto Rico in fact expose significant weaknesses. We can conduct a similar analysis of the strengths of Hillary in Puerto Rico to see what they reveal:
- Hillary Clinton has had a relationship with Puerto Rico for over 12 years. Most notably, during Hurricane Georges, she brought significant aid to the island and received a standing ovation after her speech. Plus island leaders know who she is and have experience working with her.
- Bill Clinton is an icon in Puerto Rico. The Puerto Rican people perceive that he has helped the island a lot and there is significant good will for him. When he was on the island, he was overwhelmed by crowds of pro-commonwealth, pro-statehood and pro-independence people asking for autographed pictures of the former President. In other words, he attracted a good cross section of island voters. Whether this will translate into votes for his wife is another question. Also noteworthy is that many Puerto Ricans were elated when Bill Clinton granted a presidential pardon to radical independence supporters who have a heroic status among some sectors of the island.
- Hillary's position on Puerto Rico has attracted almost half of the pro-commonwealth-PDP electorate, as well as secured the entire pro-statehood NPP electorate, and the support of independence party leaders in OpEds and newspaper articles. (Remember pro-independence supporters do not vote in the primary because they consider it somehow rewarding the "colonialist" government that "oppresses" them.) Among the pro-commonwealth PDP leadership, you have well-known people like Jorge Colberg, Jose Alfredo Hernandez Mayoral and Roberto Prats who have supported Hillary mostly out of their dislike of the Obama Puerto Rico position. Former pro-statehood Governor Carlos Romero Barcelo and Jose Alfredo Hernandez Mayoral hate each other, yet they have put their differences aside for Hillary. In Ponce, the two candidates for mayor hate each other, and they have both endorsed Hillary. Hillary's position, moreover, has been praised throughout the island in editorials, newspaper articles and the civic sector for its comprehensiveness. Not only does it recognize that the commonwealth status is a viable but not final option, it also recognizes that the people of Puerto Rico should have the right to select among independence, statehood or free association. In addition, Hillary is the only presidential or gubernatorial candidate since the termination of the Puerto Rican health care card to propose that universal health care coverage be extended to Puerto Rico. Since the elimination of the program resulted in 500,000 no longer having access to health care, you can expect a significant proportion of these voters to support Hillary. In this way, her plan is also more specific about the types of financial incentives she is going to bring to the island to help the island economy.
- The Hillary campaign has been active for months now on the island, whereas Obama's campaign really just started this weekend. Bill, Hillary and Chelsea have been in constant contact with the people during this whole time. Obama arrived yesterday, and prior to that, had Bill Richardson -- a Mexican-American speaking as a surrogate on behalf of Obama. The campaigns need to remember that not all Latinos are the same and that we don't all serve as good surrogates for each other. So Obama, unfortunately, is behind the 8-ball on this one.
Finally, the expected turnout is 30%, which according to the statehood leaders will favor Hillary because this means that the likely voters will be Hillary voters. In fact, on this both the statehood and commonwealth leaders seem to agree: the internal PDP (commonwealth party) and NPP (statehood party) polls show that Hillary is up by double digits (specifically, 10-12 points). The margin is expected to decline because Obama will be outspending Hillary in Puerto Rico. He is spending $2 million on advertising, whereas the Hillary campaign is a good old fashioned organizing campaign and GOTV effort. So the leaders I spoke to are consistent in their prediction: The pro-commonwealth Obama supporters say they hope to win in a squeaker but consider the scenario highly unlikely. They confess that a 4-5 point loss is more likely, which is the same margin of victory that pro-statehood leaders told me they predict Hillary to win by.
Both party leaders agreed that the election is not a candidate-centered election. The pro-statehood leader said:
"Whoever in the blogosphere believes that this is a candidate-centered election is mistaken. This is an issue-driven election. This is about the future route of Puerto Rico on the status issue and about which candidate provides a better social package to improve the lives of Puerto Ricans on the island. And Hillar's message of social justice and unity on the status issue has divided the pro-separatist and anti-separatist wings of the (pro-commonwealth) PDP" (translation)
The pro-commonwealth leader told me:
"This is all about voter turnout. We have a difficult job ahead because of all the divisions in our ranks. But we are hoping that the Obama media buys and the GOTV efforts of our party will make it close." (translation)
Of course, things could have turned out differently. But the Obama campaign's poor knowledge of Puerto Rican policy, and the Clinton's clear advantage on policy issues and on counting on the advice of experts such as Jeffrey Farrow, the indisputable expert on Puerto Rico issues in the Democratic Party, has rendered an almost inevitable outcome: Obama will lose, Hillary will win, and nothing will change -- unless Obama finds a way to come close, in which case, in the eyes of the media, he will have beated expectations.