Much of the assessment of the Obama campaign has been focused on where he stands in polls against McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Recent polls show him leading in Pennsylvania and Ohio but trailing in Florida. The press seems to think that Obama is toast if he can't win one or two of the three states.
I believe that Obama will almost certainly win Pennsylvania (RCP Avg Obama +5.8%) and will likely win Ohio (Obama +1.3%) (but will likely lose Florida (McCain +8.3%). For information on the RCP averages, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
However, Obama CAN win the White House without ANY of these three states.
And in fact, recent polls suggest a clear path to victory WITHOUT these three.
How he does this, with relevant polls, below the fold.
Step 1:
Win the Kerry States- except Pennsylvania.
Polling I have seen shows Obama up in ALL Kerry states, except New Hampshire (McCain up 1.3%), with Michigan being essentially a tie (Obama up 0.6%). I believe that Michigan will go for next door neighbor Obama, while New Hampshire is more worrisome. Still, I believe the increasing progressiveness of NH will in the end give it to Obama.
Step 2:
Win Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada
This seems like a strong possibility.
Iowa- Obama has led in all 4 polls taken (average margin 5.6%).
His months of campaigning leading up to the Iowa caucus mean that Iowa's voters REALLY know him. They will support him come November.
Colorado- Obama has lead in 4 of 5 polls taken (one was a tie), most recently by 6%. Colorado is becoming increasingly Blue statewide elections (and should elect its second Democratic senator this fall). This is a no-brainer.
New Mexico- A bit dicier than Colorado, but clearly doable. The two polls taken this month are split: Rasmussen gives Obama a 9 point lead, while SurveyUSA calls it a tie. And Richardson's strong support should push Obama over the top
Nevada- Probably the toughest of four, but he still has an excellent chance of carrying it off. The only poll out this month has McCain up 6, but with 14% undecided Obama still has a very good shot at this state.
Step 3: Win Virginia OR North Carolina
Polls show Obama VERY strong in both states (and he only needs one assuming he completes steps 1 and 2). Virginia's overall RCP average is +1.3% McCain, while North Carolina's is +5.7% McCain.
But remember, there is a very good chance the VP nominee will come from one of these states (Webb or Kaine or Warner from Virginia, Edwards or maybe Easley from North Carolina). Both states have several highly educated areas (suburban DC in Virginia and the UNC area in North Carolina). Both also have large African American populations which could turn out in very large numbers for Obama. Thus, both of these states VERY MUCH in play.
There you have it. Comments and predictions are encouraged. And please complete my poll below.