As Gomer Pyle said: SURPRISE, SURPRISE !
GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky had two near misses when the Democrats' top two candidates both dropped out. As Campaign Diaries summarizes:
Many of you might remember the series of polls released in the fall that showed McConnell surprisingly vulnerable to challenges by a number of Democrats, starting with Rep. Chandler, state Attorney General Stumbo and state Auditor Crit Luallen. But as all of them declined to run, McConnell's suddenly appeared much more safe. The DSCC encouraged Lunsford to run, but he was generally deemed a second-to-third tier candidate. But perhaps Lunsford can use to his benefit what until now were challenges to overcome; the fact that he has donated money to McConnell in the past and that he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher's election bid in 2003 are certainly proof of Lunsford's shady Democratic credentials and conservative roots and those can help him get elected in a state like Kentucky.
Also, Lunsford will self-fund some of his candidacy (which is one of the main reasons the DSCC pushed him to run and helped him in the primary). McConnell has a war chest of almost $8 million already, and he aired his first ads in the fall to address some of his vulnerabilities. Lunsford's ability to pay for some ads from his own pockets will be critical for Democrats to exploit their opening here.
So Lunsford's a nasty fighter who might at least give 'ole Mitch some trouble, even in a lost cause, right?
Well along comes Rasmussen today and, gee golly Lunsford is leading Mitch 49% to 44% ! Just as bad, McConnell's approval rating is hovering around 50%. To defend his honor, McConnell's campaign released an underwhelming internal poll of it's own showing McConnell ahead 50% to 39% with 57% favorables. Again Campaign Diaries:
This is certainly more reassuring numbers than those released by Rasmussen, but there is a reason the campaign chose not to release them until Rasmussen put them on the defensive: It's not a very good result either. For the Senate Minority Leader and longtime fixture of Kentucky politics to be on the brink of vulnerability (the 50% threshold) is cause for worry, especially when running against a candidate who does not have the popularity or recognition that Chandler or Stumbo might have had. Add to this the fact that internal polls are always to be taken with a grain of salt, and McConnell's effort to lower Republican concerns cannot be regarded as fully successful.
Just when you thought nothing good could come out of them hollows in Kentucky this year!
Complete Rasmussen Results:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Complete Campaign Diaries Story:
http://www.campaigndiaries.com/