Look, I'm not sure what to make of this poll either. I'm still rubbing the sleep, and the delight, out of my eyes--and remembering my once-annulled marriage, and wondering if I'm about to becoe the Gay Divorce, thanks to conservative Christians who have hijacked churches, our dialogue, and too much of our government.
For those not from California, the Field Institute has been the gold standard of polls since 1948. So how happy were we to read this:
In a dramatic reversal of decades of public opinion, California voters agree by a slim majority that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, according to a Field Poll released today.
By 51-42 percent, registered voters said they believed same-sex marriage should be legal in California. Only 28 percent favored gay marriage in 1977, when the Field Poll first asked that question, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.
"This is a milestone in California," he said. "You can't downplay the importance of a change in an issue we've been tracking for 30 years."
We all knew this day was coming. Other analyses have shown that Californians are becoming gay rights supporters at the rate of about 1% per year. (If you have that link, please comment it.)
But by that analysis, this gay marriage initiative might be too soon after the 2000's Proposition 22. [Though one wonders if there could be a Bradley effect, where people realize that they're supposed to say the right thing to pollsters, but end up voting their prejudices in private.]
Fortunately, we--the lesbians and gays of California--appear to have been underestimating out hetero neighbors. Moreover, this is dramatic evidence of the effects of the Massachusetts breakthrough, San Francisco 2004 Winter of Rebel Love, and the sweeping decision delivered by the California Supreme Court. (Irony of ironies: two conservative hetero men, Anthony Kennedy and Ron George, have entered the pantheon of the LGBT rights movement, right next to Harvey Milk, Martina Navratilova, and Sylvester!)
The right-wing haters who are likely to qualify their iniative may have overplayed their hands. Not only are they on the wrong side of history, on the wrong side of Arnold, but they are hoping for a yes vote in a state that loves to vote no on initiatives.
For California to vote down a "Gay Divorce" initiative, after the Supreme Court ruling, will indeliby change the conversation around LGBT rights in this country. In my opinion, that will open the door to a number of other progressive reforms. Why, for instance, if the public votes for gay marriage, would they not vote for Medicare for All, European-style healthcare?
Historically, when voters in 1977 (?) voted down the anti-gay Briggs Initiative, it trained a generation of progressive queer activists and created infrastructures that helped everything from Harvey Milk's election to Jerry Brown's election to the incredible community groups that led the fight against AIDS.
What we should take away from this poll is not complacency, then, but the opportunity for California to have a true progressive upsurge that will reverberate for generations. We have right and the winds of history on our side...and the issue that could signal the decline of fundamentalist Christian political power. The Equality California team that will run this is top-notch, and they will have the support of many good-hearted Californians, including, I am sure, the California Nurses Association which is very concerned with the public health consequences of a wave of forced gay divorce.
It's time to get to work!