Political prognostication is fun and foolish. I don't mind playing the fool, though. After reading the DNC staff analysis regarding Michigan and Florida and several other diaries on DKos I am prepared to make the following predictions (for entertainment purposes only). Take it for what its worth (not much) and I would love to hear your thoughts.
Saturday - I think the RBC will restore 1/2 the pledged delegates, but none of the unpledged delegats for both MI and FL. To avoid the time that would be necessary for the states to draw up new delegate selection plans and then subject them to approval, the states will be told to follow the following plan. For the delegates already selected (all of FL and district level in MI) each candidate will select half of the delegates to be credentialed, subject as much as possible to keep the affirmative action requirements. The delegates remaining to be selected will be selected as usual except only half as many will be selected and they will be subject to the candidates' approval. For the uncommitted delegates in MI at both of these stages the "candidate" approving refers to a majority of Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Biden. (As Edwards and Richardson are supporting Obama, this gives effective control to Obama). This solution allows MI/FL to have seated delegations. It allows the voter preferences to be reflected (as much as possible). However, it causes the least amount of goalpost movement. It has the added advantage of being exactly what the Republicans have done to not just MI and FL but a couple of other states so the argument that it disadvantages the Democrats chances in MI and FL is heavily blunted.
Sunday - Clinton surrogates take to the talk shows to argue that they believe MI and FL should be seated fully and will appeal this to the credentials committee. Obama surrogates take to the talk shows to argue that they respect the decision. This was a matter between the states and the DNC. They are glad to see delegations from both seats seated. Obama has still won a majority of pledged delegates. The new magic number is 2208 2104 and they are approximately 59 delegates away from this (a little less as a few supers declare between today and then). Dean also hits the talk show arguing the decision has been made. It's fair. The voting will be over in 2 days and at that time the superdelegates should quickly decide and the party should unite. All eyes turn to Puerto Rico.
With a turnout of 800,000 Puerto Rico votes in favor of Clinton 54%-46% (a net of 64,000 popular votes). She wins 30 delegates to Obama's 25. Clinton gives a speech much like the one after Kentucky. (So goes Puerto Rico, so goes the nation). The disappointment in the Clinton camp, however, is apparent. The Obama camp says they congratulate Clinton on a well fought victory, but expresses confidence in wrapping this thing up soon, as they are now about 30 (or less) delegates away from the win.
Monday - A group of 20 representatives come out together in support of Obama saying it is time to come together. Both candidates have run great campaigns, but the voting ends tomorrow and it's time to come together in support of the nominee. A few people may point out that even counting MI & FL (counting the uncommitted vote in MI for Obama and estimating the caucus states) Obama leads in popular vote, in addition to states won, and pledged delegates won. The "magic number" is now around 10. Lanny Davis blames the media for stealing the election and predicts a Democratic loss in November. Silence from Clinton herself.
Tuesday - Obama wins Montana and South Dakota combined by a 60-40 margin in popular vote and by about 18-13 in delegates. Obama speaking in Montana notes that he now has a majority of the delegates, but comes just short of "declaring victory". Clinton does not speak.
Wednesday. Dean, Pelosi, and Reid say that it is now time for superdelegates to declare their preference although they individually will remain neutral. Another 20 representatives, 20 DNC members, and 10 Senators come out for Obama because he has won a majority of the delegates. A number of other superdelegates (including several that have been supporting her) privately inform Clinton that they will come out for Obama this week as well. That evening, Clinton speaking in Harlem says that while she will continue to try to get all of the delegates from Michigan and Florida it clear now that Obama has a majority of the delegates even should that happen. She will continue to push to have a "universal health care" plank in the party platform, but she is suspending her active campaign for the nomination. She avoids questions about what that means and whether she is releasing her delegates. Two weeks later she makes it clear that she believes all delegates should vote their conscience, but that she will be actively campaigning for the nominee.
OK. There it is. Some things here I'm more confident about than others. The next week will tell.