The media coverage of the veepstakes is always so shoddy. Its like each pundit is drawing names from one of those giant lottery ball things. In truth there are so many variables and paths available for the VP slot that handicaping the decision is quite difficult, especialy in a change year like this. But lets do so anyway.
Now I'm a Virginia boy and Obama supporter, but I was originaly a Mark Warner (Our former and very popular Govenor) supporter way back in the day before he announced he didn't want to run. I am so happy to see not only the "purpleing" of my state as the media calls it but that our top three dems in office are major players for the VP slot. I give a brief bio and their strengths and weaknesses on an Obama ticket.
Mark Warner: Name was originaly floated as a contender for the presidency, but he declared a non-intent to run to spend time with his family and work on virginia politics with his state level PAC. He was a popular blue governor in a fairly red state, who crafted sound fiscal policy and took VA to the top of all the lists for awesome. He left office with a 74% approval rating (for those without VA civics our govs can only have one term consecutivly, no back to back relections). He was the first Dem to see progressive potential in the former capitol of the confederacy and has worked tirelessly to build a progressive party base in Virginia. With out him the recent D-victories would have been impossible.
How He Helps: Definatly makes VA a likely dem pickup and with his extensive expiriance as a CEO and top flight governor, could blunt criticims of inexpriance aimed at Obama. Has lots of money, which helps even with Obama's massive fundrasing.
Where he hurts: If he didnt want to undergo national attention running for president, why would he do it for a far less exciting job. Mark is also a millionaire and would do little to add "poor white people" cred to the ticket. Finaly Warner is now running for senate and a strong favorite for the win. He may be needed more from the senate floor than presiding over it.
Tim Kaine: Tim is a good politicain, but sufferes from a very dibilitating condition, following Mark Warner. He won the govenor's mansion essential on Mark's back, and though he has faired decently in the last few years, Tim hasn't replicated Mark's success in pushing the progressive platform. Though it should be noted that Tim did help in getting democratic control of our state senate this past november. Tim's name is really only floated because he was one of the first to really get out there for Obama, way back when Obama was going to be crushed by the Hilary Machine.
How he helps: Many say Edwards was not trying to help elect Kerry in 2004 but setting himself up in 2008. Whether this is true or not, no one could think this about Kaine. If you wanna see a VP canadate that really hits the stump and doesn't pull punches, then Kaine is a shure bet. Thats what the VP slot is, a glorified cheer leader for the oval office. Kaine also could help drive off inexpiriance charges that are always leveled at senators but not govenors.
How He Hurts: Kaine may not help win VA, or have any pull with swing groups. He is not known outside of VA well and might further fuel questions like "Who are these guys?" "Where do they stand?" I know those are BS questions, but the media likes to ask BS questions and we have to prepare for it.
Jim Webb: Golden child of the 2006 election. He won the dems the Senate with his razor thin win agaist arch conservative George Allen. Remember he was down in the polls by more than 20pts early on. A vietman vet, father to an Iraq war vet, and formal naval secretary to Regan. Webb came to the D-side after seeing the incompeteince in the GOP and the war. Webb, like obama, correctly saw downt he road and knew what was going to happen. He rebuffed the president IN PERSON at a senate luncheon (winning the hearts of liberal bloggers) and admits to carry a gun at pretty much all times (winnin the hearts of VA's gun lovers).
How He Helps: Too many reasons to list. Definately makes VA a swing state in the fall. His extensive time both as a marine and as the naval secretary add that War Vet theme to our tickted, and may be crucial in countering the McCain "Hero of Vitnam" theme. He has tons of cross party appleal and will definatly help tap into white working class votes, vet votes, and independants, all supposedly strong McCain areas. Has a son who fought in Iraq and will be going back soon. This means a personal connection to the war that will reach voters better than any academic argument, and make Webb immune to most critisim. Webb will also fight hard agaisnt the GOP like no other before him. This turncoat reaganite is the best thing the party has going for them, desides Obama of course.
How he hurst: Sadly with a close margin in the senate, we might need him to stay in his seat (though theoreticaly tim Kaine appoints the replacement) dems need a strong, centrist voice in the senate like Webb. Also two senators? When was the last time that combo worked? Finaly Webb may have won simply because Allen was a racist and was racist on camera. The VA senate race brough up charges of sexism from Webb's past as a writer and naval secretary. With all the talk about Obama wining over women, putting a White Male Marine With Past Chauvanistic Statemts, is not the brightest move.
How they all help: VA will be a critial swing state, with or without a VA VP, but other sothern states are now in play, Georga, S Carolina, Lousisana, and western states like Iowa and Colorado. A stong centrist VP from either region could provide the nessecary push to win electorily.
How they all hurt: First they are all men. I really think someone like Claire McCaskil has a better shot at VP than Webb or Warner. Obama seriously needs to make shure women voters are not turned off to him this fall. While how he does that is another topic all together, it is important factor in looking at VP nods.
Deep down I dont think any of the three above will be VP, but they are the core of the New South for Democrats. Anyone running in the south needs to look at these three for the cripsheet on how to defeat republicans on their own turf.
UPDATE: For my first diary this is pretty good dialogue. I just want to address a few issues. I highlighted the VA trio as good possible VP picks but there are others out there, thats a diffrent post. But here are a few corrections to my analysis and the discussion:
1)If Webb were picked as VP and the ticket one, Tim Kaine would select the replacement. We dont lose a VP slot, but I feel that anyone after Webb and not elected outright would be really weak the next time the seat is up.
- I may have been a bit harsh on Kaine in my analysis. He has done alot of good things in VA and has ratings in the mid to low 60s. But there is the fact that his election was on the coattails of Mark Warner, Kaine hasn't had Warner's success in pushing progressive policies through our assemble, and Kaine has no recognition outside of our state.
- Webb is very popular right now as a VP pick, not only in my little poll, but amoungst many pudits and other useless but interesting measures. Still I can't shake the idea that Webb didn't win as much as George Allen lost. Webb might be a good SecDef (would be nice to have one who acutaly served) and that would give a lot of expiriance to the Obama cabient. I say this because his former sexist statments don't help in a General Election, and that would be killer.
I am thinking of doing another indepth analysis expanding beyond the VA trio (just for fun) using the poll as a guide. So keep the comments comming and the debate points up. Lets do a little vetting of our own.