If we take the numbers Kos uses for the current delegate count, Clinton has 1,604 and Obama has 1,733. There are expected to be 4047 delegates - meaning to have a majority you need 2024 (though the number could be 2025 depending on the outcome of special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana. There are 710 delegates remaining.
Obama needs 291 more delegates, and Clinton needs 420; just like the number tally on the Dailykos frontpage.
Obama needs to win 41% of the outstanding delegates. Clinton needs to win 59%. It looks very close at first blush, but lets keep going through the primary season and see what the remaining superdelegates would have to do to end the contest. On the flip...
The remaining contests are North Carolina (115 delegates), Indiana (72),
Using the current polls, let's say Clinton wins Indiana 55% to 45% for Obama. That would be a split of 40 delegates for Clinton and 32 for Obama.
And if we take a conservative win for Obama in North Carolina of 52% to 48%, he would garner 60 delegates and she would get 55.
Guam we'll know the result of tomorrow, but lets suppose they split the four delegates. Assign 2 each.
At this point, Obama would have 1,733+32+60+2=1827. His Magic Number drops to 197. Clinton will have 1,604+40+55+2=1701. Her Magic Number is 323. There are only 519 delegates left now. Obama now only needs 38% of the remaining delegates, while Clinton needs 62%.
Clinton is favored in West Virginia (28) delegates, Kentucky (51 delegates), Puerto Rico (55 delegates).
Obama is favored in Oregon (52 delegates), Montana (16 delegates), and South Dakota (15 delegates).
If we guess that Clinton will win her favored contests 55% to 45%, then that is 74 delegates for Clinton and delegates for 60 Obama. Obama wins 52% to 48%, then Clinton would net 40 more delegates, and Obama would get 43.
At the end of all the contests, we're at 1930 for Obama, and 1818 for Clinton. There are 299 outstanding delegates. Clinton will need 206 of them (69%), whereas Obama will need only 94 (31%).
The number to watch over the next few weeks is the number of superdelegates to declare themselves. Obama's Magic Number is around 100.