An update to last Friday's diary, with news of interveningly gained supers and the advisory about half-seating of FL/MI under discussion. Also news from Chuck Todd on "2026" and "2210," see below.
This data is current through the Boyd and Betty Richie endorsements last night. Betty was Pelosi Club, but that number is still 6 because Chris Van Hollen joined last weekend. New Friday supers will be noted and the numbers will change accordingly. When the numbers have changed, the names that are in the new numbers will go here:
Friday May 30 endorsements:
We've also learned Deb Kozikowski is going to announce on June 4, and so will Jimmy Carter (who reconfirmed his Pelosi Club status).
"June 3 is the end of this process. Every (Democratic) voter in the country will then have had an opportunity to vote," said Kozikowski, during a Belfast Telegraph interview. "There is no reason for a superdelegate not to weigh-in on June 4."
That article or this, leaves no room to doubt who she is supporting.
Debra Kozikowski, an uncommitted superdelegate from Sen. Ted Kennedy's home state of Massachusetts, fumed as she called the comment "inappropriate," especially given what's happened with the Kennedy family in the past week.
"She must need sleep, is all I can say," she told The Post. "I can't think of any reason why anyone would say anything that insensitive. And that apology was a non-apology."
It should be noted that there was a superdelegate scoop of an exodus of 40 Clinton switchers supposedly ready to come out if Clinton did not stop damaging the nominee. The leader of the group came out a week ago (CA. Rep. Cardoza) and said this is why he was switching. Later that same day Hillary Clinton went to the extreme opposite end of what the group was trying to get her to do, and since then these people have announced nothing. I am definitely not saying Giordano's multi-sourced, journalistic standards scoop was wrong, just that they seem to not be doing yet what they say they will be doing.
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Update on How Obama Should Play It
Last week, a lot of you agreed with my contention that, especially because of the district-level Michigan delegates already supporting him, Obama has nothing to fear in these delegate numbers and thus he should minimize Clinton's ability to extort him for a better dropout deal by whipping up voters he'll need to win over in a we-wuz-robbed-by-that-bastard-Obama frenzy. That was the point of Obama "agreeing" to seat FL/MI in full as-is, even though he does not have that power. It's about important PR and the narrative, with him speaking directly to those voters Clinton will be using against him for extortion by saying, I am not blocking anything she's claiming I'm blocking. PR and the narrative are important precisely because those are the tools being used against him by Clinton to ratchet up the pressure on getting the terms of her surrender met.
I think he should just announce that he played by the rules and after 8 crushing, sneeringly law and rule-breaking years of Bush it's important to play by the rules. He should then say that obviously hundreds of thousands of his voters and even many Clinton and Edwards voters in those states understood the elections not to count and thereby stayed home. He should point out that Michigan and Florida turnout was well lower than all the other primaries this season when compared with 04 Kerry vote. (This should allay the fears that Obama will then be "admitting" the popular vote of 0 for him in Michigan is valid.) Then he should say that it's unfortunate to have the messy situation with Florida and Michigan, and that the most important outcome is that the party be unified to defeat John McCain in the fall, and thus he would be willing to seat Michigan and Florida's delegates as-is if it helped mend fences among Democrats. That because, while he understands the need for the DNC to be able to prevent states in the future from breaking the rules, the urgency to come together and defeat John McCain is by far the most important competing concern. And then he should pledge that after the election he will work with all party leaders to reevaluate and overhaul all aspects of the process of naming delegates and primary calendar elections so that everyone in the party knows the rules and the principles behind those rules going into the next presidential cycle.
And, a quick acknowledgment to Mark Miller of Kalamazoo and one of these district-level Obama pledged delegates. He was central in helping compile the lists that emptywheel, Chris Bowers and I have used in our analysis of the delegate situation involving the Michigan delegates, and his contribution should be recognized. Thanks, Mark. I hope the MDP doesn't pull anything on you and the other Obama delegates by replacing you. And if they do, please understand that there are tons of people who would also find that crappy and we all hope you and others wouldn't permanently sour on working in Democratic politics, even as it would be a hard pill to swallow.
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The Michigan 31 Update
Over at DCW, they have begun compiling verification on the names of the district-level Michigan delegates and confirming support for Obama. They're not done, and are up to 22 confirmations. If someone here knows any of these people and can help with confirmations, please help them. By tomorrow, this may or may not still be required legwork. I trust emptywheel's research into this and the 31 number, so I am still using it by default. In particular I find it persuasive that while there was clearly some union support and organization at these meetings, the reports of overwhelming Obama supporter turnout make me instinctively suspect the number who will vote for Obama is on the plus side of 31, if anything. In the interest of full disclosure, however, I'm pointing out that 31 isn't yet a unanimously agreed number.
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A Chuck Todd Update
I have also found out from Chuck Todd about why they are using the 2026 number that is all over the intarwebs like a virus (see Ambinder, etc.). Apparently the DNC is using 2026. What that means is the DNC is apparently using 798 as the number of supers. 2026 to be the majority means there are 4051 delegates in play, and you win 2026-2025. There are 3253 pledged delegates, and 4051 minus 3253 is 798.
Well, I went to the DNC's site, and got their pdf as of May 15 listing every person and every state delegation's total number. May 15 is after the last change to the superdelegate lineup, with the Travis Childers election on May 13. If you count up all the numbers, they have 721. If you double and triple-check, it is still 721. The single, sole discrepancy (and yes, I painstakingly did the comparisons) is that the DNC still lists Al Wynn in Maryland, while DCW has removed him. Since his name will change to Donna Edwards' on June 17, this dovetails with my Friday diary pointing out that the numbers will officially change on that day to 2025.5 and 2209.5.
So, if the DNC is using 798, then they'd have to be using 77 add-ons. But if you go to this interactive DNC map and count up all the add-ons (don't forget to click the names of territories too) then you get 75, with Puerto Rico's numbers all being "undefined" for some reason. Puerto Rico gets 1 add-on, by the way. This 76 number matches DCW. You can also use the interactive site to confirm 3253 pledged delegates, incidentally.
So what I think happened is someone at the DNC told NBC and/or other news outlets the number was 798, but did so in error. The DNC is actually reporting 797 with their documentation, but a spokesperson may have misspoken. I pointed all this out to Todd, and he's going to re-confirm everything after the RBC meeting with new numbers. Even though the FL/MI outcome this weekend will likely change the overall majority number needed to win, the baseline number will still have to be factored in, so accuracy still matters.
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I'm going to run through a bunch of different Michigan and Florida seating scenarios, but to save space I'm going to put the enumerated lists up here and incorporate them by reference into individually varying scenarios.
Non FL/MI Delegates, Base: Obama has 1982:
Pledged delegates earned by Obama: 1646.5
Pledged delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 12
Superdelegates earned by Obama (DCW): 323.5
Total: 1982
Locked 41:
Guaranteed add-ons from caucus states before June 3: 1 (Maine June 1)
Guaranteed minimum pledged from Puerto Rico: 15
Guaranteed South Dakota pledged: 8 (winning by 1 vote up to 61.11%)
Guaranteed Montana pledged: 9 (winning by 1 vote in each half up to 70% in a half or 62.5% statewide)
Automatically triggered supers at the end of the primaries: 7 (6 Pelosi Club, plus Margie Campbell in MT)
The impending June 4 declaration by Deb Kozikowski: 1
Total: 41
The Likely 100% Group of 17:
Anytime after June 3; The Obvious Club (Clyburn, Brazile, Reid, Dean): 4
June 7; one of the 2 Minnesota caucus add-ons: 1
June 7; Vermont primary add-on: 1
June 7; Mississippi primary add-on: 1
June 8; Montana primary add-on: 1
June 13; one of the 2 Wisconsin primary add-ons: 1
June 14; Iowa caucus add-on: 1
June 14; Idaho caucus add-on: 1
June 14; one of the 2 Virginia primary add-ons: 1
June 15; one of the 2 Washington caucus add-ons: 1
June 21; one of the 2 North Carolina primary add-ons: 1
June 21; Oregon primary add-on: 1
June 21; South Dakota primary add-on: 1
June 21; Nebraska caucus add-on: 1
Group Total: 17
The Minimum 50% Group of 10:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named district-level pledged in Iowa: 2
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in SC: 1
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in NH: 1
June 7; the 2d of the 3 Texas add-ons: 1
June 7; the extra of the 2 Minnesota caucus add-ons: 1
June 14; Edwards' expected unnamed 3 PLEO/at-large pledged in Iowa: 3
June 15; the extra of the 2 Washington caucus add-ons: 1
Group Total: 10
Obama's expected minimum: 5
The following groups of pledged and supers from Florida and Michigan are affected by halving, zeroing, etc.:
Anytime; Edwards pledged delegates in Florida: 13
Anytime; union-backed district-level pledged in Michigan: 5
June 14; uncommitted statewide pledged in Michigan: 19
June 14; Michigan add-ons selected: 2 (see note about how I split them)
Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers:
Equal Treatment
Florida and Michigan both half supers (Outcome 1-2): 159
Florida and Michigan both full supers (Outcome 3-4): 172
Florida and Michigan both zero supers (Outcome 5-6): 146
Michigan Punished More
Florida full, Michigan zero (Outcome 7-8): 157
Florida half, Michigan zero (Outcome 9-10): 151.5
Florida full, Michigan half (Outcome 11-12): 164.5
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2, MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1, WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 18
(Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
(Note: I am splitting the 2 MI add-ons, putting 1 in the overflow group he stands a small chance of winning and 1 in a group Obama is likely to win 50% of)
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2025, to go over the top.
Base: 1982
Needed: 43
Needed After Locked 41: 2
Virtual Magic Number: 2
Again, not including the Maryland or DC pledged Clinton switching losers that Green Papers, DCW and Kos' tally tracker do. They are included in none of these calculations.
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2209, to go over the top.
[Please note that this is the single worst-case scenario that exists, and would have to be reinstated along the line after the likely reduction Saturday. By then, enough supers will have declared to make this moot.]
Base: 1982
Pledged Delegates in MI/FL: 98
Superdelegates in MI/FL: 10
Total: 2090
Needed: 119
Needed after Locked 41: 78
Needed after likely 100% Group of 17: 61
Needed after likely 19 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 42
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 37
Obama is very, very likely to win at minimum the majority of the following:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 13
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 1
Total: 19
Majority: 10
Needed: 27
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 26.5
Virtual Magic Number: 26.5
Out of: 190
Percent: 13.9%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means, needed: 17.5
Out of: 190
Percent: 9.2%
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 172
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2, MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1, WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 18 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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The Donna Edwards Factor
On June 17, as previously noted, Donna Edwards will win and change all the numbers slightly. When Edwards gets added, and she is an announced Obama supporter, the number of total delegates in play increases by 1, and the majority to win numbers all increase by 0.5. But Obama gets 1 full supporter, so all his magic numbers, were any to still exist, all drop by 0.5.
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A Note on How Halving Works
Poblano noticed that Chuck Todd and First Read have pointed out that one way for the delegates to be halved is not to allot slots for all the different delegates and merely count their votes as half votes, the way that Dems Abroad delegates work, but instead to go into each individual congressional district and cut the delegations in half. For example, if a CD gets 6 delegates, now it only gets 3. The implication might be that if the district went 3-3 because it split 52-48, now it would be split 2-1.
However, what do you do if the district has an odd number of pledged delegates? What about the 5 and 7 delegate districts, how do you halve those without giving someone a half-vote? Do they both become 3s? Florida has 185 pledged delegates, how do you send 92.5 people, each with full votes? Particularly after they have been named and allocated according to careful gender and racial equality proportion? It would be a giant mess. Not to mention, it would leave some people out in the cold.
I suppose it's theoretically possible to give everyone full votes and halve the number sent, but I suspect they won't do it this way. Too complicated, too messy, and unnecessarily generative of hard feelings.
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Before tomorrow's RBC meeting, we've learned that the rules seem to restrict the committee's ability to restore more than half the pledged delegates. The superdelegates seem to be in another category, and there may be a conflict between the rules and the charter on them. From what has been reported, we might just see a halving all across the board. Fairly straightforward and simple.
Then the question would be how does the committee allocate Michigan's pledged delegates. Do they leave them as-is, or do they accept Michigan's own proposal of 69-59? Or do they do something different, such as 73-55? (Note: I did not run any 73-55 scenarios below, but it's easy. All the even numbered outcomes would simply increase Obama's Magic Number by 2, because it's half of the 4 delegate difference.)
The first 6 scenarios assume equal treatment of the Florida and Michigan superdelegates, whether half, full or zero. The other variable is whether Michigan's pledged are left as-is or allocated 69-59.
The last 6 scenarios are variations where Michigan's supers are punished more than Florida's. Florida full and Michigan none, Florida half and Michigan none, or Florida full and Michigan half. Again, whether Michigan's pledged are left as-is or allocated 69-59 accounts for two different variations of each of the three different superdelegate scenarios.
Here they are.
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Outcome 1: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers in both states get half votes. 2117 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4233 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 27.5 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2117 (2117 to 2116)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI Superdelegates: 5
Total: 2036
Needs: 81
Needed after Locked 41: 40
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 23
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 13.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 8.5
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 9.5:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 2.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 0.5
Needed: 3.5
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 3
Virtual Magic Number: 3
Out of: 175.5
Percent: 1.7%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means Virtual Magic Number reached.
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 159
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2 (halved), MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1 (halved), WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 16.5 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 2: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers in both states get half votes. 2117 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4233 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 27.5 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2117 (2117 to 2116)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI Superdelegates: 5
Total: 2050
Needs: 67
Needed after Locked 41: 26
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 9
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 4
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 7:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 0.5
Needed: 0.5
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 0
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 3: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers from those states seated in full. 2130.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4260.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 55 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2130.5 (2130.5 to 2130)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI Superdelegates: 10
Total: 2041
Needs: 89.5
Needed after Locked 41: 48.5
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 31.5
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 22
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 17
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 10:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 2.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 1
Needed: 12
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 11.5
Virtual Magic Number: 11.5
Out of: 190
Percent: 6.1%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means, needed: 2.5
Out of: 190
Percent: 1.3%
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 172
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2, MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1, WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 18 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 4: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers from those states seated in full. 2130.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4260.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 55 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2130.5 (2130.5 to 2130)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI Superdelegates: 10
Total: 2055
Needs: 75.5
Needed after Locked 41: 34.5
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 17.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 12.5
Obama is very likely to win at least 4 of the following 7.5:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 1
Needed: 8.5
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 8
Virtual Magic Number: 8
Out of: 190
Percent: 4.2%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means Virtual Magic Number reached.
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 172
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2, MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1, WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 18 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 5: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers from those states do not get votes. 2103 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4205.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 0 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2103 (2103 to 2102.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Total: 2031
Needs: 72
Needed after Locked 41: 31
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 14
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 4.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: negative 0.5
Still with 6.5 Edwards pledged in Florida and 2.5 union-backed named district-level pledged in Michigan available.
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 6: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers from those states do not get votes. 2103 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4205.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 0 FL/MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2103 (2103 to 2102.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Total: 2045
Needs: 58
Needed after Locked 41: 17
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 0
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: negative 5
Still with 6.5 Edwards pledged in Florida available.
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 7: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers from Florida seated in full, Michigan supers do not get votes. 2116 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4231.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 26 FL supers + 0 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2116 (2116 to 2115.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Florida superdelegates: 5
Total: 2036
Needs: 80
Needed after Locked 41: 39
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 22
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 12.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 7.5
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 9:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 2.5
Needed: 3
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 2.5
Virtual Magic Number: 2.5
Out of: 174
Percent: 1.4%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means Virtual Magic Number reached.
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 157
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2 MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 17 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 8: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers from Florida seated in full, Michigan supers do not get votes. 2116 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4231.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 26 FL supers + 0 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2116 (2116 to 2115.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Florida superdelegates: 5
Total: 2050
Needs: 66
Needed after Locked 41: 25
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 8
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 3
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Needed: negative 0.5
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 9: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers from Florida seated in half, Michigan supers do not get votes. 2109.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4218.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 13 FL supers + 0 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2109.5 (2109.5 to 2109)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Florida superdelegates: 2.5
Total: 2033.5
Needs: 76
Needed after Locked 41: 35
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 18
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 8.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 3.5
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 9:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 2.5
Needed: negative 1
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: negative 1.5
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 10: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers from Florida seated in half, Michigan supers do not get votes. 2109.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4218.5 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 13 FL supers + 0 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2109.5 (2109.5 to 2109)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
Florida superdelegates: 2.5
Total: 2047.5
Needs: 62
Needed after Locked 41: 21
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 4
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: negative 1
Edwards' 6.5 remaining named pledged in FL still available.
Virtual Magic Number reached.
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Outcome 11: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left as-is. Supers from Florida seated in full, Michigan supers seated in half. 2123.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4246 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 26 FL supers + 14.5 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2123.5 (2123.5 to 2122.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 49 (33.5 FL, 15.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI superdelegates: 7.5
Total: 2038.5
Needs: 85
Needed after Locked 41: 44
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 27
Needed after likely 9.5 state-level MI pledged (June 14): 17.5
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 12.5
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following 9.5:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
Anytime; Union-backed named district-level pledged in MI: 2.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 0.5
Needed: 7.5
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 7
Virtual Magic Number: 7
Out of: 182
Percent: 3.8%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means Virtual Magic Number reached.
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 164.5
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2 MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1 (halved), WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 17.5 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 12: Florida and Michigan's pledged delegates are halved and left Michigan split 69-59. Supers from Florida seated in full, Michigan supers seated in half. 2123.5 Needed to Win.
Overall Total Delegates in Play: 4246 (4049 + 156.5 MI/FL pledged + 26 FL supers + 14.5 MI supers)
Needed for Majority: 2123.5 (2123.5 to 2122.5)
Base: 1982
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 0
FL/MI superdelegates: 7.5
Total: 2052.5
Needs: 71
Needed after Locked 41: 30
Needed after 100% Group of 17: 13
Needed after likely 50% Group of 10: 8
Obama is very likely to win at least half of the following:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in FL: 6.5
June 14; one of the 2 Michigan add-ons: 0.5
Needed: 4.5
Needed after Donna Edwards Factor: 4
Virtual Magic Number: 4
Out of: 182
Percent: 2.2%
Getting 24 of 55 pledged in Puerto Rico means Virtual Magic Number reached.
Obama has been winning a huge ratio of these supers for months:
Anytime; Regular old uncategorized (in any of the above lists) undeclared supers: 164.5
Obama could win a small few of these leftovers:
Various; TN-1, FL-2 MO-1, AZ-1, NV-1, KY-1, PA-2, TX-1, WI-1, VA-1, MI-1 (halved), WV-1, RI-1, IN-1, PR-1, NC-1: 17.5 (Note: the 3 FL add-ons have been named, and 1 already announced for Obama)
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Outcome 13: The Fuck You Carl Levin Solution
For being heavily involved in both bringing about the Michigan problems and continuing to relentlessly whine about them, Carl Levin is singled out and stripped of his vote and farting is done in his general direction.
Basically the same numbers as the outcomes, above, only a whole fucking lot more hilarious.
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SUMMARY of Virtual Magic Numbers:
Current 2025: 2, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Worst-Case 2209: 26.5 out of 190, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 1: 3 of 175.5, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 2: reached
Outcome 3: 11.5 of 190, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 4: 8 of 190, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 5: reached
Outcome 6: reached
Outcome 7: 2.5 of 174, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 8: reached
Outcome 9: reached
Outcome 10: reached
Outcome 11: 7 of 182, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 12: 4 of 182, minus Puerto Rico gain on 15
Outcome 13: Totally hilarious
As we can see, getting 24 out of 55 pledged delegates in Puerto Rico on Sunday means the Virtual Magic Number is hit in every scenario except two: Outcome 3 (which would be 2.5 shy) and the worst-case 2209, which would be 17.5 shy. Outcome 3 is the scenario where the pledged delegates are halved and the supers left fully intact.
After the RBC decision, we'll revisit all the numbers and have a much simpler scenario. After Puerto Rico, we'll have a very clean look because the Montana and South Dakota pledged delegate counts are essentially locked in at this point.
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This is something that might make me laugh until the end of time. Mid-Feb was check, May 6 was checkmate, we are removing pieces off the board because even after checkmate Clinton is screaming that playing chess would be a lot easier if it were checkers.
And that's where we stand on RBC Eve, the 30th of May, 2008.
