Opportunity Knocking:
The 2008 Presidential Election and the Progressive Movement
For the first time in my lifetime, the Democratic party has an opportunity of huge proportions lying ahead of it. In large part this opportunity is due to the Republican Party and their leader-of-the-moment, President George W. Bush. Without President Bush’s ham-handed approach to politics and leadership, we would not be standing at this crossroads looking at the day when we could nominate a true progressive Democrat for the presidency, and see beyond, the day when that progressive Democrat would win.
Don’t get me wrong. I have tremendous respect for Hillary Clinton. I have always felt she would have made a better president than her husband. I have always respected her positions on women’s issues, children’s issues, health care and many many other things.
But neither she nor her husband ever truly reflected the progressive wing of the Democratic party. In all fairness, neither did Jimmy Carter, or even really Al Gore. The Democratic party has a long history of nominating the person they think is most likely to win, and in as many cases as not, nominating the losing candidate.
When the Democratic party of the past has nominated candidates they have most often been moderates, and wherever possible, as non-controversial as possible. While the GOP has from Barry Goldwater and Richard Nixon on reached further and further right for it’s nominees, the Democratic Party has steadfastly resisted moving to the left.
Until a guy named Howard Dean showed up in 2004 and cracked us all up by declaring he was from the "Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party." The combination of Howard Dean blazing the path and George Bush burning the playing field to the ground has created an unprecedented Democratic opportunity.
Just this once, we can nominate a Democratic Democrat. A progressive who cares about progressive issues, a Democrat who will build the party, not criticize it.
And more than that, we can nominate a Democrat who will win.
Immediately, I know the folks on Clinton’s side of this will immediately get out their maps, figures and numbers, all intended to prove that Hillary Clinton would be the stronger general election candidate against John McCain.
And at this moment in time, they are probably right. I believe Hillary’s argument that she’d be the STRONGER candidate against McCain. I believe Hillary would win by 10-20 points more than Barack Obama would by carrying more large states and doing better in the midwest.
But Hillary’s argument is premised on the presumption that Barack Obama would lose and she would win. I think this is simply untrue.
I believe either candidate could & would win this election. I agree Clinton would probably pick up a few more electoral votes – but I also believe that either Obama OR Clinton would clear 300 and beat John McCain.
With that being said – why not nominate someone from the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party? Why not a progressive? Why not someone whose values match our values as much as possible?
We don’t have to pick the candidate in the middle just because she’d get the most electoral votes. We can pick our best option even if he’s not going to win by quite as much.
One thing has become clear to me (and turned my feelings about the Obama candidacy stronger) is that Obama plans to follow the Howard Dean playbook. Obama is already showing signs that he can and will run a NATIONAL campaign –he will compete in states like Wyoming, Arizona and Texas – he may not win them, but he will try.
And that’s what matters.
In doing so Obama has an unprecedented opportunity to Change The Democratic Map – he is likely to bring in both Southern and Western states. And frankly, I believe he will do better in the mid-west than anyone suspects.
And Yes, Clinton will win PA and MI by a larger margin. Who cares. All we need is 50%+1. I don’t believe for a minute that Barack Obama with Howard Dean on one side and the Democrats in Congress on his other side are going to give up Pennsylvania or Michigan to John McCain. They ALL know what’s at stake.
I am supporting either nominee to my fullest ability. I believe Barack Obama will win and he will win by changing the map. I believe Hillary Clinton would win as well – but I do not believe that she could (or would try to) change the map.
There are many people who attribute conniving, nefarious, manipulative, or untruthful motivations to Senator Clinton for getting in and staying in this race. I believe those people are, quite frankly, full of shit.
The nomination cycle runs from January to June, and for that reason, and that reason alone, she has every right to stay in. The first one to stop fighting (HELLO AL GORE & JOHN KERRY) is the first one to lose. There is nothing wrong, conniving, untruthful or even remotely dishonest about staying in the race until it is over.
John Edwards promised repeatedly to stay in this race until the convention. Except he didn’t. How come these anti-Clinton fanatics aren’t all over JRE about his habit of oh, I don’t know, LYING? Because she can do no right in their eyes and Edwards gets a pass and she's the target. It’s B.S. and they all know it. Edwards made a political choice – he had no chance, he got out. Clinton is doing the same thing – making a choice – to fight as long as she can – and no one should criticize that choice. Obama even said so.
The same folks are attributing "evil motives" to the fight to seat Florida and Michigan – again B.S. – Those states have a right to be heard, even if their primaries were flawed and seating them doesn’t change the outcome – again, even Obama agrees.
In the end Obama wins either way.
He’ll go on to win the election, change the map, and while he’s at it, teach Democrats how to act like Democrats again. Thank god.
And Hillary Rodham Clinton? She’s awesome. She had a good run and didn’t quite make it. Maybe she runs again someday. Maybe not. Either way, she made history too.
But let’s all get on board. Let’s take President Obama to the White House. Let’s make this election about change and then let’s make some changes. We only win united.
If the kids are united, they will never be divided.