AP says so, NBC says so, everyone except the great DCW is pretty much saying so.
But is it true?
Here is the most recent pdf the DNC put out listing all superdelegates who weren't add-ons. It was released May 15, after the Cazayoux and Childers special elections. It has 721 names. It still lists Al Wynn, the only discrepancy with DCW's list. I've double and triple checked the count. It's 721.
The DNC's interactive map confirms what we all agree on, that there are 3253 pledged delegates outside of Florida and Michigan, and that there are 76 add-ons outside of Florida and Michigan. So, by the DNC's own count, there are 4050, and they include Al Wynn. Donna Edwards will take his vacated spot June 17, and she has already endorsed Obama.
Today, we learned all delegates in Florida and Michigan will be halved. Florida had 185 pledged and 26 supers, Michigan had 128 pledged and 29 supers. That's 368 delegates halved, for 184. 184 plus the DNC's 4050 is 4234, which means once Donna Edwards becomes official, the majority needed to win number becomes 2117.5 (2117.5 to 2116.5). But right now it is 2117 (2117 to 2116).
Earlier this week, Chuck Todd told me they use the number they do because the DNC gives them that number, even if they disagree with the DNC. So someone at the DNC needs to verify their own math, and re-calibrate the number they are putting out to news organizations.
Todd told me they would look into it after the weekend brouhaha, but it's really on the DNC to clarify their number. As we stand, DCW is correct.
[If anyone can help me, I am looking for verification of any deal pertaining to the Michigan add-ons. Did they both get allocated to Obama, or is it unofficial? If true, it would bump his delegate total by 1, and all the needed to win numbers down by 1.]
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Outside of Florida and Michigan:
Pledged delegates earned by Obama: 1646.5
Pledged delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 12
Superdelegates earned by Obama (DCW): 323.5
Total: 1982
Florida and Michigan:
FL/MI pledged delegates: 63 (33.5 FL, 29.5 MI)
Pledged Florida delegates publicly declared from John Edwards to Obama: 4.5 (9 of 13, according to NBC's First Read)
FL/MI Superdelegates: 5 (10 halved)
Total: 2054.5
Majority: 2117
Needed: 62.5
When Donna Edwards wins:
Total: 2055.5
Majority: 2117.5
Needed: 62
Note: not counting the 2 pledged Clinton switchers.
Expected by Wednesday:
Sunday June 1; Maine add-on: 1
Sunday June 1; Puerto Rico: 15-24 pledged
Tuesday June 3; South Dakota: 8 pledged
Tuesday June 3; Montana: 9 pledged
Tuesday June 3; 1 (Jim Clyburn)
Wednesday June 4; Expected official supers: 3 (Margie Campbell, Deb Kozikowski, Jimmy Carter)
Pelosi Club, besides Jimmy Carter: 5 (both Pelosis, Chris Van Hollen, Denise Johnson and Maria Cantwell)
Total: 42-51, varying with Puerto Rico
Needed: 11-20, varying with Puerto Rico
Expected Calendar-Driven:
Anytime after June 3; The Obvious Club (Brazile, Reid, Dean): 3
June 7; one of the 2 Minnesota caucus add-ons: 1
June 7; Vermont primary add-on: 1
June 7; Mississippi primary add-on: 1
June 8; Montana primary add-on: 1
June 13; one of the 2 Wisconsin primary add-ons: 1
June 14; Iowa caucus add-on: 1
June 14; Idaho caucus add-on: 1
June 14; one of the 2 Virginia primary add-ons: 1
June 15; one of the 2 Washington caucus add-ons: 1
June 21; one of the 2 North Carolina primary add-ons: 1
June 21; Oregon primary add-on: 1
June 21; South Dakota primary add-on: 1
June 21; Nebraska caucus add-on: 1
Group Total: 16
Needed: negative 5 to positive 4, varying with Puerto Rico
Here's a group of available delegates Obama should get at least 50% of:
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named district-level pledged in Iowa: 2
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in SC: 1
Anytime; Edwards' remaining named pledged in NH: 1
June 7; the 2d of the 3 Texas add-ons: 1
June 7; the extra of the 2 Minnesota caucus add-ons: 1
June 14; Edwards' expected unnamed 3 PLEO/at-large pledged in Iowa: 3
June 15; the extra of the 2 Washington caucus add-ons: 1
Group Total: 10
Obama's expected minimum: 5
Needed: negative 10 to negative 1, varying with Puerto Rico
That would get Obama over the top, with at least 1 to spare. Virtual Magic Number reached.
And then there's still 159 regular other supers, plus 19 unaccounted-for add-ons with 17 votes (4 undeclared add-ons from FL and MI halved).
Yammer on, Ickes.
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PS - there's been some personal news in the works for a couple weeks. I'll have a little mention of it officially on Tuesday night.
