Cross-posted at Election Inspection
(Initial delegate projection here)
This is Election Inspection's Final projection for North Carolina (and, as you'll soon read, will be a very good day for Senator Obama, despite the "Wright" flap). Now, anyone who's paying attention will probably notice that I haven't changed very much since my initial projection, that's because I don't think that Wright-gate II did all that much damage to him. Therefore, this will just be a reposting of my initial projection with a change in CD-07, CD-11, and the at-large delegates.
CD-01
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is the only one in North Carolina where African American's make up a majority of the entire population, it's represented by Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) who has already endorsed Barack Obama for president. Assuming that African Americans make up 60% of the electorate here (which, not knowing much about how whites in this district vote, is probably a decent guess), and presuming that Obama wins 85% of the AA vote (which, I'm going to say is likely low, but I'd rather be conservative in my estimate), he would only need to win 19% of the white vote to get over 58.25% of the vote for a 4-2 split in the district. There's no doubt that Obama will get the 4-2 spread, but getting 75% for a 5-1 split is probably going to be difficult.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 3, Clinton 3)
District profile
District analysis: This district includes southern Raleigh and a few urban areas other than that this is basically a rural district, it also, ironically enough, contains the town of Clinton. The district is represented by Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) who has remained neutral. This congressional district reminds me so much of MS-01 where Clinton edged out Obama, except for a few things. This district is slightly more educated, has a slightly higher number of African Americans, is quite a bit younger, has a slightly higher median income, has significantly fewer whites, and has a fairly large latino population (a little over 10%). Clinton was only barely able to edge Obama out in MS-01, and even factoring in that latino population, more likely than not, Obama will edge out Clinton here, but not nearly enough to get the same split as in CD-01, this district is a wash.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2 Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is represented by Rep. Walter B. Jones (R), who, after being an ardant supporter of th Iraq War (the guy who coined "freedom fries"), he has since become a pretty vocal opponent of the war. Now, there is little doubt in my mind that Clinton will win the majority of votes here, but even with that in mind, I don't see either candidate breaking the 62.5% threshold needed to get a 3-1 split, although that could change. Unless something new comes to my attention, I'm considering this to be a delegate tie.
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 9 (Obama 6 Clinton 3)
District profile
District analysis: Ok, I was originally saying that this district would go 7-2 for Obama, but on further inspection, the most likely outcome does seem to be a 6-3 split (Obama will have no problem breaking the 61.2% threshold for this split), but getting to 72.3% is going to be a bit harder. VA-08, which is very similar to NC-04 (though more educated and with fewer African Americans), only gave Obama 63% of the vote. Now, I have a feeling that number was skewed thanks to its proximity to DC (lots of federal employees) so I think that Clinton got a boost out of that, however; even presuming that, it's still unlikely that Obama can get the 7-2 split.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3 Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: Well, we've reached the "Appalachia" part of the state, but even still, this congressional district isn't nearly as bad as say OH-18 or VA-09 for Obama. There are very few African Americans here (only about 7.6% of the population), but the district is certainly better educated than OH-06, the only district in Ohio where Clinton broke 70% of the vote. Clinton will easily get the 3-2 split, but it's going to be nearly impossible for her to get 70% of the vote here, especially with such a (relatively) high rate of education.
CD-06
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: Not much more to say than it is basically the same as the 5th district, albeit with a slightly higher education rate. Clinton will win the district with a 3-2 split.
CD-07
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 3, Clinton 3)
District profile
District analysis: I'm a bit torn on this district, first of all, I want to say that I believe that Obama is going to win this district pretty easily, but I'm not 100% sure whether or not he'll do well enough to break 58.35% to get a 4-2 split. My gut tells me yes, the fact that this district is 21% AA plus has a pretty solid rate of those with a Bachelor's degree helps out, plus something to notice is that this district is almost the same as the state as a whole. That was what I was thinking, but, because this district was already on the edge of the split, Wright-Gate II is likely to impact it just enough to deny Obama the 4-2 split.
CD-08
Delegates at stake: 5 (Obama 3, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District analysis: I was trying to find the closest thing to this district, and what do you know, I find out that SC-05 is almost exactly like it. Obama will, much like in that district, win a majority of the vote, but he won't break the 70% to make it to 4-1.
CD-09
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is very much like VA-07, where Obama won a solid 66% of the vote. He will have no problem getting the 4-2 split, and it's entirely possible that he'll hit 75% to get a 5-1 split (though, I would say that it's pretty unlikely, admittedly).
CD-10
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is another of the "Appalachia" parts of the state, and one of the few districts where Clinton can hope to do well. In fact, this district has the same basic make-up as VA-09 (which was the only district in Virginia which Clinton outdid Obama). Even in that district, Clinton was only able to get 65% of the vote, which falls below the 70% needed for a 4-1 split (and this district has twice as many African Americans and is slightly better educated).
CD-11
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 4, Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: This is the final "Appalachia" district in the state, but I'll be honest, it reminds me more of VA-06 than OH-06, and will could probably turn out that way. However, I suspect that if the Wright flap had any impact in North Carolina, it would be here, so I'll presume that it's a 4-2 split in Clinton's favor.
CD-12
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 5, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is close to, but not quite, a majority-minority district, in addition, this district has a relatively high level of education, it's basically VA-04 (where Obama won 72%) only with a higher African American population (and a relatively high latino population). Obama will easily clear 64.3% to get a 5-2 split here, but he'll likely fall short of getting the 78.6% needed for a 6-1 vote (I'd say that he'll get 75-25, or something like that).
CD-13
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 5, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This is the sister district to VA-02, where Obama won 65% of the vote (and in that district, there was a smaller proportion of African Americans), Obama will, once again, break 64.3% and will get a 5-2 split.
At-Large Delegates and PLEOs
Delegates at stake: 38 (at-large: Obama 15, Clinton 11; PLEOs: Obama 7, Clinton 5)
At first I was assuming that Obama would win North Carolina by 20 points, but then pesky outside events happen, and so it has become incredibly doubtful that Obama would be able to pull it off. Having said that, Obama's organization in the state is incredible, and, as I mentioned before, I believe that pollsters are understating Obama's support in North Carolina (as they've done routinely in the south). Look for Obama to have a big night in North Carolina:
Obama: 58.5%
Clinton: 39.7%
Other (Gravel/Uncommitted): 2.8%
Grand Total: Obama 65, Clinton 50