This is purely unscientific....but just look closely at FiveThirtyEight (Poblano)'s projection for Indiana, county-by-county, as referenced by Kos on the front page: Obama is, so far (8:45 PM ET) outperforming the projections almost across the board.
The projection was a 5 point win for HRC, which is in line with most pre-election polls....now, some of this could change, because the odds are good that the total Indiana vote count will be several hundred thousand more than the projection indicated. But let's look at this by county: according to Poblano, Obama, even though he was only projected to lose by 5, was to win only six counties in Indiana.
Allen by 6,
Hamilton by 19,
Lake by 2,
Marion by 19,
Monroe by 20,
and Tippecanoe by 20.
According to CNN's election center, right now, Obama has all but clinched wins in six counties, with leads in two others, and Lake and Tippecanoe have not reported ANYTHING yet.
Obama has locked up Elkhart county, leading by 19 late in the game---Clinton was projected to win that county by 10 percentage points (2000 votes).
Obama has won Boone county by 400 votes, after being projected to lose by 8 points.
Obama leads in Montgomery (projected HRC by 22) and Brown (projected HRC by 23) with very few votes outstanding.
Additionally, in each of the others in which BHO was "favored", he has either outperformed expectations, or few/no votes have been tabulated. Meanwhile, most of the rural counties in the state have already reported.
We may win this one yet.
poblano
CNN Election Center