For understandable reasons, attention to the May 6 delegate race has waned a bit this morning--but results are still trickling in. So I'm reposting my delegate tracker thread from last night, to see if there's interest.
So if you'd like to how the May 6 pledged-delegate races are looking at the moment, this is the place to be. My plan is to going to keep going until it becomes clear that USA Today has lost interest in updating its district vote totals. Of course, that point could come soon.
Quick Disclaimer: Priority dictates that I point out PocketNines’ impressive North Carolina results tracker diary and FleetAdmiralJ’s two-state diary (with several very pretty graphs) from last night. greentexas also pitched in a late-night entry when I pigheadedly resisted his/her entreaties to pay attention to the results being announced by the North Carolina Board of Elections. (As you can see below, I’m conceding his/her point.)
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I’ve posted basic introductory information about the contests in Indiana and North Carolina here. As explained below, there’s plenty more background material about the May 6 primaries in the rest of that diary as well.
LATEST RESULTS
Update 41, 11:15 A.M. CDT, Thursday, May 8: Within the past 12 hours, there have been only very minor adjustments in the USA Today numbers. The North Carolina Board of Elections numbers have moved somewhat more, but none of the changes in any tally has an effect on the delegate race.
USA Today and the Board of Elections now agree that Obama won the North Carolina primary 875,683 votes to 652,824. The only substantive difference between the two sources’ numbers now is the Board’s prediction that Obama will (half miraculously) pull out another +2 net delegates in NC-2. Other than that, at this point, there’s not much more that can change. A quick perusal of the INF+2N numbers shows that Obama has a reasonable shot at two more net delegates in only one district (barring another NC-2-style shocker): NC-13, which recently flipped from 5-2 Obama to 4-3 but could flip back (INF+2N 3.45%). Clinton has somewhat more distant chances at pickups in in IN-3 and NC-12. My guess is that none of these will flip, resulting in a full final delegate haul for May 6 of Obama +13.
With 100% of precincts reporting in the statewide totals for both states (though I’m sure there are a handful of provisional ballots, etc., remaining to be counted), Clinton appears to have won Indiana by 1.11%. Obama, by contrast, has won North Carolina--a bigger state--by 14.58%. That explains the approximately 208,500 net gain for Obama in the mythical popular vote race.
In the delegate race, Obama is currently sitting at +11 net pledged delegates (and don’t forget the three add-ons, which he’ll likely win 2-1) for May 6.
(An “X” in the INF+2N column means that the candidate can’t improve his/her delegate haul from its current projected level without getting more additional votes than there are left to get.)
INDIANA (USA TODAY FIGURES)
Dist | PDels | %In | O% | C% | Dels (O-C) | O INF+2N | C INF+2N |
At large | 16 | 100% | 49.44% | 50.56% | 8-8 | X | X |
PLEO | 9 | " | " | " | 4-5 | X | X |
CD-1 | 6 | 100% | 52.71% | 47.29% | 3-3 | X | X |
2 | 6 | 91% | 48.01% | 51.99% | 3-3 | X | X |
3 | 4 | 37% | 43.52% | 56.48% | 2-2 | 30.14% | 9.55% |
4 | 4 | 99% | 49.28% | 50.72% | 2-2 | X | X |
5 | 4 | 93% | 52.55% | 47.45% | 2-2 | X | X |
6 | 5 | 97% | 41.40% | 58.60% | 2-3 | X | X |
7 | 6 | 98% | 69.59% | 30.41% | 4-2 | X | X |
8 | 6 | 100% | 40.58% | 59.42% | 2-4 | X | X |
9 | 6 | 100% | 36.62% | 63.38% | 2-4 | X | X |
Totals | 72 | | | | 34-38 | | |
Swing | | | | | C+4 | | |
NORTH CAROLINA (USA TODAY FIGURES)
Dist | PDels | %In | O% | C% | Dels (O-C) | O INF+2N | C INF+2N |
At large | 26 | 100% | 57.29% | 42.71% | 15-11 | X | X |
PLEO | 12 | " | " | " | 7-5 | X | X |
CD-1 | 6 | 97% | 64.55% | 35.45% | 4-2 | X | X |
2 | 6 | 96% | 56.11% | 43.89% | 3-3 | 55.56% | X |
3 | 4 | 94% | 45.81% | 54.19% | 2-2 | X | X |
4 | 9 | 98% | 68.37% | 31.63% | 6-3 | X | X |
5 | 5 | 100% | 42.31% | 57.69% | 2-3 | X | X |
6 | 5 | 98% | 46.03% | 53.97% | 2-3 | X | X |
7 | 6 | 96% | 51.01% | 48.99% | 3-3 | X | X |
8 | 5 | 95% | 58.04% | 41.96% | 3-2 | X | X |
9 | 6 | 97% | 56.84% | 43.16% | 3-3 | X | X |
10 | 5 | 99% | 36.31% | 63.69% | 2-3 | X | X |
11 | 6 | 100% | 43.27% | 56.73% | 3-3 | X | X |
12 | 7 | 96% | 79.10% | 20.90% | 6-1 | X | 13.26% |
13 | 7 | 97% | 64.18% | 35.82% | 4-3 | 3.45% | X |
Totals | 115 | | | | 65-50 | | |
Swing | | | | | O+15 | | |
Those are the USA Today numbers. Below are the ones from the North Carolina Board of Elections. Because there’s no way to calculate INF+2N stats (no “precincts reporting” numbers), the rightmost column instead carries the net change from the USA Today delegate-split numbers to the analogous Board of Elections numbers. (The Board is reporting larger numbers of votes in most--though oddly not all--of North Carolina’s districts by an average of more than 4,500 votes, so they seem to be later in the process.)
NORTH CAROLINA (BOARD OF ELECTIONS FIGURES)
Dist | PDels | %In | O% | C% | Dels (O-C) | Vs. USAT |
At large | 26 | 100%? | 57.29% | 42.71% | 15-11 | Even |
PLEO | 12 | " | " | " | 7-5 | Even |
CD-1 | 6 | ??? | 65.73% | 34.27% | 4-2 | Even |
2 | 6 | ??? | 58.49% | 41.51% | 4-2 | O+2 |
3 | 4 | ??? | 45.22% | 54.78% | 2-2 | Even |
4 | 9 | ??? | 68.30% | 31.70% | 6-3 | Even |
5 | 5 | ??? | 42.49% | 57.51% | 2-3 | Even |
6 | 5 | ??? | 49.61% | 50.39% | 2-3 | Even |
7 | 6 | ??? | 49.48% | 50.52% | 3-3 | Even |
8 | 5 | ??? | 58.86% | 41.14% | 3-2 | Even |
9 | 6 | ??? | 57.05% | 42.95% | 3-3 | Even |
10 | 5 | ??? | 37.21% | 62.79% | 2-3 | Even |
11 | 6 | ??? | 43.28% | 56.72% | 3-3 | Even |
12 | 7 | ??? | 79.00% | 21.00% | 6-1 | Even |
13 | 7 | ??? | 64.16% | 35.84% | 4-3 | Even |
Totals | 115 | | | | 66-49 | O+2 |
Swing | | | | | O+17 | |
So compared to the USA Today numbers, the Board of Elections numbers show Obama picking up two additional net delegates in CD 2. (That shift is impressive: between the USA Today totals and the BoE ones, Obama picked up 8,494 votes to Clinton’s 2,004--so Obama got just under 81% of the interim votes. That’s what it took to turn the 3-3 split in the district into a 4-2.)
SUMMARY
As things currently stand in the USA Today results, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 99-88 in delegates from the May 6 contests, for a net Obama +11.
Presuming the North Carolina Board of Elections is correct that Obama will win ND-2 by 4 delegates to 2, Obama will widen that gap to Obama +13.
Adding the statewide vote totals from Indiana and North Carolina together, Obama leads Clinton by 208,664 votes. This constitutes 41.62% of the “popular vote” lead (501,414) that Obama, according to RealClearPolitics, carried into the May 6 primaries. Note that this number does not include any votes from Florida or Michigan (because the DNC considers those states' primaries to have been illegitimate) or from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, or Washington (because, to RCP's reckoning, popular-vote totals have not been reported for caucuses in those states). I believe the number disregards the Texas caucuses as well.
MORE INFORMATION
If you’d like to know more about any of the districts being contested on May 6, you can consult Wikipedia’s general entries on the Indiana and North Carolina districts. You can also find the individual districts’ Wikipedia entries linked from the district numbers in the tables above.
If Wikipedia’s information is a bit bare-bones for you, try checking the tables of prognosticators’ picks mentioned below. Follow the links (click on the pundits’ names at the top of each table) to the original projection posts and you’ll see that many of them discuss the particulars of individual districts in some detail.
As was the case in my previous delegate-tracker diaries, I’ve put together a fair amount of background material for anyone who wants additional context about the state of the race as the May 6 contests begin. It includes:
To try to make this diary shorter (easier to read ... and to download), I’ve packed all of the above background information into a diary that I posted previously. If any of the above sounds interesting to you, give it a look. The new data, however, are going to be posted here.