The number of delegate math diaries at DailyKos likely exceeds the number of undeclared super delegates in the Democratic party. Why, then, was I compelled to write one of my own?
First, there was Howard Fineman's article, "Obama's Plan to End the Race." In it, Fineman reveals that the Obama campaign figures superdelegates will have the mandate of a majority of elected delegates to use as a basis for their decisions after May 20th.
Then, there were the diaries and comments this morning opining that the May 31st meeting regarding seating FL and MI could go in Clinton's favor, thereby forcing Obama to appeal and ask that they simply not be seated, which would be seen by voters in those states as a real attempt on his part to disenfranchise them (as opposed to the months of Clinton spin claiming he was trying to disenfranchise them when he wasn't).
So with Axelrod's comments to Fineman and the Chicken Littles as my impetus, I decided to crunch the numbers and see what impact the May 31st decision might have on the nominating process.
Edited to add: I am not suggesting that I agree with this particular proposal. I am suggesting that it's fun to contemplate and chew through.
I used MSNBC's numbers for superdelegates and Slate's Delegate Calculator to run my projections.
Projected Outcomes: States
State | Obama % | Clinton % |
WV | 40 | 60 |
KY | 40 | 60 |
OR | 60 | 40 |
PR | 22 | 78 |
MT | 52 | 48 |
SD | 52 | 48 |
Notes
- I used Rhode Island as a basis for my assumptions about Clinton's performance in WV and KY.
- I used Washington (between caucus and beauty contest results) as a basis for my assumption about Obama's performance in OR.
- I give Clinton a commanding win in Puerto Rico and split the delegates in SD and MT -- essentially giving Clinton the benefit of the doubt despite my experience with friends and family in those two mountain states that suggest a stronger Obama performance there.
- I give no credence to the "popular vote" meme and therefore do not discuss it here.
Superdelegate projections:
According to MSNBC's numbers and the number of superdelegates listed at DemConWatch (which excludes FL and MI superdelegates), I split the remaining 266 superdelegates between the two candidates, 133 apiece. This may be exceedingly generous, but I don't want to assume how the supers will vote.
Results without FL and MI - 2024 needed to win:
Without FL and MI, the delegate count after all remaining primaries stands at:
- Obama 2077.5
- Clinton 1960.5
Results with FL and MI - 2209 needed to win:
Because I do not attempt to reassign Edwards' 13 delegates or delegates to other candidates in FL, nor do I do anything about the "uncommitted" delegates from Michigan's primary, these numbers do not add up to the established delegate totals.
Again, I assumed a worst-case scenario with FL and MI. I assigned FL delegates according to percentages (Obama 33%, Clinton 50%) and assigned MI delegates according to percentages as well (Clinton 55%, Obama 0%).
With these adjustments, the delegate count after all remaining primaries stands at:
- Obama 2147.5
- Clinton 2151.5
A difference of 4.
A difference of two defections from Clinton to Obama, assuming they otherwise split.
Just something to think about and chew on.