Hey, don't get me wrong. This grueling and prolonged primary has been fun and all, but it's over now. Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee. It's now time to turn our attention to the general election, specifically to all those purple states whose hue in 2004 tinted somewhat red.
Funny thing about some of these "red states" - they're actually not red at all. Elections reflect the will of the electorate (i.e., the people who vote), not necessarily the will of the people. If we look at the demographic breakdown of individaul states by population and compare it to the demographic breakdown of those who voted in 2004, we see significant inequalities in representation between certain groups.
The first state that we will examine in this series is Florida. Compare the state's demographic turnout by race in the 2004 presidential election to the state's overall population:
Percentage of Voter Turnout in 2004 - FL | Florida Popoulation |
White (70%) | 61.3% |
African American (12%) | 15.8% |
Latino (15%) | 20.2% |
Asian (1%) | 2.2% |
Other (2%) | 0.5% |
White Floridians voted in disproportionately greater numbers in 2004 than almost every other racial demographic. Since white voters in the state went decisively for Bush, this resulted in a 5-point Bush victory:
Percentage of Voter Turnout in 2004 - FL | Bush | Kerry |
White (70%) | 57%
| 42% |
African American (12%) | 13% | 86% |
Latino (15%) | 56%
| 44% |
Asian (1%) | 44%* | 56%* |
Other (2%) |
66% | 34% |
* data unavailable for FL - figures taken from national numbers
Total Percentage of Popular Vote - FL | 52.1% | 47.1% |
This is what would have happened if the electorate matched the population, and if the margins for Bush and Kerry remained consistent along racial demographic lines:
Florida Popoulation | Bush | Kerry |
White (61.3%) | 34.9%
| 25.7% |
African American (15.8%) | 2.0% | 13.9% |
Latino (20.2%) | 11.3% | 8.9% |
Asian (2.2%) | 1.0
| 1.2% |
Other (0.5%) | 0.3% |
0.2% |
Popular Vote Adjusted for Proportional Voting by RaceL | 49.5%
| 49.9% |
Would Kerry have won? Maybe, maybe not. The adjusted margin gives Kerry a 0.4% victory. But much of these data are based on exit polls, so a projected margin like this cannot provide us a definite answer. But the margin would certainly have diminished in Kerry's favor by approximately 5 percentage points. That's 2004. I don't think I need to remind anyone what this would have meant for the 2000 election.
Tell me that doesn't irritate you just a little bit. There is only one reason this country is wasting hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of our soldiers' lives on a meaningless and illegal war; there is only one reason we are trillions of dollars deeper in debt than we were 8 years ago; there is only one reason our dollar has weakened to the point that gas and food prices are skyrocketing; there is only one reason that we are continuing policies that will ultimately affect the planet's fragile ecosystem to our detriment; there is only one reason that we do not currently hold a 5-4 advantage on the Supreme Court:
People who are sympathetic to the Democratic Party have not been voting!
This is not a GOTV problem as much as a registration problem. The US Census Bureau shows that the vast majority of citizens who are registered to vote will turn out to vote on election day. We need to register voters. It's really just that simple.
As we all know, Barack Obama is spearheading an unprecedented 50-State voter registration drive. There is no doubt that this, like every other aspect of his campaign, will be historic and record-breaking. But he needs our support for this. Sign up here to join the 50-State Voter drive!
Alternatively, if you can't devote large blocks of time to register voters, you can still help. VoteZip.org offers volunteers the means to help people register mostly without even leaving the house. Sign up to volunteer for VoteZip.org here. The process and mission of VoteZip.org is described in detail in this diary.
Whatever you decide to do, don't just do nothing. Don't just sit on your ass watching Keith Olbermann on MSNBC, or atrophy in front of your computer for hours browsing throught the latest rec'd diaries on Kos. "Hey man, it's all good. Obama's got it all covered," right? Wrong! When was the last time you heard Obama say "I"? Obama reminds us repeatedly that he needs our help; he needs our involvement. If you wanted an I-candidate, you picked the wrong person.
Nothing will change if we don't get involved. We can't afford another four years of that.