There were a couple diaries from yesterday discussing the Arizona Republic's article that Maverick (TM) John McCain isn't really an accurate picture of the presumptive Republican nominee. Conventional wisdom says brand Maverick (TM) is crucial to McCain's courting of independents in the fall, and if the value of the brand is diminished, so is his candidacy.
Follow that with my conversation Wednesday evening about Tuesday's results with my Terminix representative (necessary here in NC), who voted Hillary on electability. Rory - now a citizen, but originally from Ireland - had an interesting perspective on McCain's VP choice. It is a perspective that brought up questions I thought might be worth discussing.
So, I've searched the site, and not found any specific diaries about this in the last 3 months so I decided to come out write my first diary. But I just joined three weeks ago and haven't mastered the search engine. How would Rudy Giuliani impact the election narrative, and McCain's chances to win in November?
So first let't talk brand Maverick (TM). If his home state newspaper is beginning to run stories about the brand having mislead the public about its assets, there does exist a possibility that other media outlets in other markets might pick up the story and run with it. This of course would seriously impact the national value of brand Maverick (TM). The value of that brand is important for wooing independents to the McCain side in November.
Now my Terminix representative Rory voted Hillary, but will vote Barack in November. McCain scares him. When he left Ireland he moved to NYC for about a decade, and then moved to NC in 2005. Which means he was living in Brooklyn on 9/11/2001. His reason for choosing Hillary was electability. He feels with Obama as the nominee McCain will take Rudy to run with. I think it is an interesting propostion for three reasons.
First, he takes aim directly at the lots of the voters in team Hillary's coalition. Catholic, white, descended from recent imigrants. At worst for McCain it keeps PA and OH solidly purple, and could move NJ into that category. Rudy also keeps FL from being a swing state. He does nothing to help in the Mountain West or in the real South.
Second, they become untouchable on the MSM definition of patriotism. They win that position without saying another word. I can't think of a reasonable way to trump the combination of a POW and the guy so strongly associated with getting NYC through the attacks. Rory, thought Rudy gets too much credit, but that is another discussion.
Lastly, and what I view as most important, it instantly restores the luster to brand Maverick (TM). With this choice McCain would call the bluff of the Christian right:
Really, you aren't going to vote for the guy who many of you think is a muslim, and even if he isn't do you want a liberal replacing 2 or 3 supreme court justices?
Heck, it might anger traditional conservatives as well. And it separates him from Bush since Giuliani is not on that team. This would provide at least the full month of September with the MSM talking about brand Maverick (TM), ensuring it's value through November, which is all they really need.
I'm a realist, and I really think Barack has a much better than 50/50 chance of winning, but I'd like to hear what others have to say. I've only voted in two presidential elections so far, and the VPs didn't affect my votes, but people seem to think the undercard can help when used properly. The downsides for McCain are 1) it might push moderate conservatives to Obama, 2) It would dampen the evangelical base he's trying to rally, 3) opens them up to the fact that there are 5 marriages between them, and 4) Rudy does have some questionable ties.