Today after a very long and tumultuous week for Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) the congressman has admitted to being the father of a three year old daughter of Laura Fay, who is not his wife. While the personal affairs are not so politically news worthy it is how they were revealed that is spinning heads and becoming front page news for the NYC dailies more known for gossip than reporting. We are seeing the downfall of Vito Fossella but also of the Republican party's last strong hold in New York City and by association in New York State. Here is what has happened so far and the scenarios for down the road;
A few moments ago Fossella released this statement;
"I have had a relationship with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three year old daughter.
"My personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain to the people I love and I am truly sorry.
"While I understand that there will be many questions, including those about my political future, making any political decisions right now are furthest from my mind.
"Over the coming weeks and months, I will to continue to do my job and I will work hard to heal the deep wounds I have caused."
A quick recap if you have not been paying attention;
* Vito Fossella was arrested early Thursday morning May 1 for DWI
* He mentioned to police that he was rushing to get to his daughter to take her to the hospital even though his family is in Staten Island
* Fossella had a .17 BAC
For a more in depth look at the details of his arrest and the following media frenzy check out VinoFossella.com.
Before news was released about his daughter many Republicans in the district flocked to his side to show support including Guy Molinari and Mayor Bloomberg. Political insiders commented that a DWI alone would not bring down his campaign, even with the minimum 5 day sentence he will receive if convicted;
"Until you see something worse [than DWI] and he resigns, he's going to be the candidate," said a Republican operative in Washington. "At this point in the game, a wounded incumbent is better than a no-name candidate."
That was Monday. Further Fossella's arrest might trigger an ethics investigation in the House but not many people are expecting that to go anywhere. What is going to bring down his campaign as Down With Tyranny points out in their post Vito Fossella losing his seat in Congress for all the wrong reasons, is the revelations about his daughter with Laura Fay. Just today the the NRCC is quoted saying;
When asked to comment on the race in New York’s 13th District, which includes Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Julie Shutley, said only that voters in the district "believe in national security and lower taxes" and will reject Democratic policies.
She would not say whether the committee had endorsed the candidacy of Mr. Fossella, the Republican incumbent who was arrested last week on drunken driving charges.
And the influential Conservative Party, part of New York's fusion voting, is refusing to comment on whether they will support his continued candidacy. From the Observer;
Michael Long, chair of the State Conservative Party, who learned of Fossella's confession from my inquiry, said "I think it's rather damaging." Long would not say if he or the party--which has endorsed Fossella in each of his City Council and congressional races--would support him for another race, or ask him to step down. "I think I'm going to reserve comments until I speak to him."
Reports are now saying party donors are being told to withhold money from Fossella and there is little if any behind the scenes party belief that Fossella will survive this. So what is next? More likely than not Rep. Fossella will be allowed to keep his seat but will be forced out of running for re-election. Should Fossella resign before July 1, Gov. Paterson has the ability to call a special election (think IL-14, LA-06). This would be disasterous for Republicans for the obvious reasons. The DCCC already has their eyes on this seat and can drop in a million dollars to assure Republicans likely never hold this seat again and the NRCC can not fight back. However should the party force him out, which is the worst move they could make the parties then would decide who the nominees are potentially by-passing the current Democratic candidates running; Steve Harrison and Domenic Recchia.
If this happens there is a lot of talk about putting up a Staten Island based elected Dem, both Harrison and Recchia re from the Brooklyn portion of the district, which would include;
- State Senator Diane Savino
- Assemblyman Mike Cusick
- City Council member Mike McMahon
Savino and McMahon represent very Democratic regions of the North Shore of Staten Island (and Brooklyn in Savino's case) whereas Cusick represents the mid-island, the front line between southern conservatives and northern dems. This could potentially be the 'ideal' Staten Island candidate since he typically easily wins his re-election campaigns with much cross over appeal from both parties. He is well known and enjoys high approval ratings from his district. The downside is he is very hesitant about jumping into higher races. He enjoys the comfort of his seat and seems to have little political ambition or will to aggressively campaign. Savino on the other hand could be a strong candidate but would give up a State Senate seat at a time when the party is about to take control and wouldn't want to risk opening this seat to Republican take over. McMahon is often mentioned as having his eyes on the Borough Presidency seat at the end of his term in 09. His wife is a judicial nominee and will have a comfortable job and I don't foresee him giving up his law practice and local job to spend half of his life in DC.
On the Republican side two names are being thrown around. City Councilmember James Oddo, is minority leader in the Council (one of two Republicans, so congrats on winning that race!). He is somewhat of a party leader on the south shore. The other is the Staten Island DA Dan Donovan. Donovan unlike Oddo has experience running a borough wide race for DA, winning with 68% in 2007 in an election year Democrats expected much better results and a potential upset. Both candidates would have a challenge running a district wide race on this level. Al D'Amato had been reportedly helping Donovan look at the Attorney General race in NY in 2006, so he has some powerful support.
Finally there are the two current candidates for the seat for the November election. Assuming there is no special election I don't see any of the Staten Island candidate jumping into the race at this point. They risk their seats and are behind in the money and organizing game. Domenic Recchia currently holds $350k, and a $100k lead over Fossella in cash on hand. He has the backing of Rep. Nadler (NY-08) as well as Sen. Diane Savino (another reason she would not jump in) and McMahon. Outside of that though little is known. He has not declared his candidacy, he has no campaign website or even a campaign staff. He rarely shows up to political club events and forums/debates. His opponent is Steve Harrison who ran in 2006. Harrison garnered 43% after being outspent 13:1. Harrison already has raised more moeny than he did in 2006 and has $91k on hand. Not outstanding numbers but he does have one big advantage in activist and volunteer support. He has won every endorsement that has happened in the district so far and has the progressive support in the city;
* American Heritage Democratic Club
* Democratic Organization of Richmond County
* Staten Island Democratic Associiton
* Democracy for New York City
* Progressive Democrats of America (national endorsement)
Harrison is likely to win up most if not all of the remaining political club endorsements. Harrison was also one of the original 10 endorsers of A Responsible Plan and supports PDA's Healthcare not Warfare campaign.
update
via the Daily News;
National Republican leaders have "lost all faith" in Rep. Vito Fossella and are poised to begin polling in the 13th CD on potential candidates to take his place on the ballot, despite the fact that he has yet to make a definitive statement about his future political plans.
The poll could start as early as today, according to a Washington GOP source, and will likely include at least two names: Sen. Andrew Lanza and Staten Island DA Dan Donovan.
Domenic Recchia does not have a campaign site.
Steve Harrison for Congress
Steve Harrison's ActBlue page
NY13Blog
VinoFossella.com
VetoFossella.com