Waiting for the coffee this morning, and reacting to all the posts about WV, OR, and KY etc...
Two main thoughts keep coming to mind.
- Is it not reasonable to think that there will be some malaise on the Clinton voter side?
- At this stage, does it not become fair to think that the percentage of those who vote for Hillary because of racial bias goes way up?
I mean, if I am an average Hillary supporter and I see all the red ink she's swimming in financially, and I see the delegate math, and I have some sense of reality about winning in November and thus not wanting to contribute to the destruction of the party's chances, I think I'd have to either vote Obama or not vote at all in the upcoming primaries.
Now, with Hillary's campaign having played hard on the emotions of potential supporters, I'd say that as long as she's claiming to be in to win, that many would feel it a betrayal to switch to Obama just yet.
So they stay home.
This means Obama will actually do better than expected in KY, WV, and PR...especially if he can reach and invoke some memories in the older Appalachian voters who remember when Kennedy came to visit them.
However, of those still determined to go vote for Hillary, it seems to me that there has to be three prime motivators strong enough to get them up and to the polls despite the math and the mess:
- Women voters whom rightfully do not want to end the historic bid until all 50 states have had a shot at choosing a woman for president.
- Racists who just cannot stand the idea of a black man winning their party's nomination.
- Locals close to the campaign and/or ardent followers whom are just too committed, after such a long protracted battle, and whom just want to do what they had envisioned all this time come election day, and that's pull the lever for their candidate.
It's not my desire to argue the percentages of these. But I did have one strong reaction after realizing this: If I were in either category 1 or 3 above, I'd have to think long and hard before doing anything that might provide cover or otherwise indirect encouragement to those who fit category 2. To me, voting for Hillary at this point does just that. Earlier in the campaign, it's more complicated, and that's another discussion. But at this stage it seems a very sharp point.
I respect the idea that in this primary, for many, it has to do with legacy, on women's rights, for the future. But the history is made. The race was run. Nothing will erase the efforts of Hillary Rodham Clinton and her campaign, volunteers, and those who voted for her.
That is, nothing except ending it badly, or worse.
I think a lot of people get this. And a lot of people for Clinton get it too, and are looking for a way to not participate in the worst part of this without being seen as traitors.
And the one who may be the best to do that is Obama himself.