As oil remains over $130 a barrel, gas prices passed $4 a gallon on average for the first time ever, and the recession starts to make it's presence felt with an unemployment jump to 5.5%, we're in sorry shape energywise.
But worry not, my friends, for we are on the edge of a revolutionary change - one that, during the short span of Obama's 8 year term as POTUS, we will see a dramatic shift in how we think about energy and travel. More over the fold.
Revolution #1 - Solar power
Currently, the 2 biggest sticking points on solar cell mass production are:
a) Speed of production, and
b) Cost.
Solution #1 - Produce Faster
Nanosolar has recently brought online their first factory, using a proprietary and highly innovative process of producing solar cells the way newspapers print the news. That's right - solar cells can now be printed like paper. Their one factory, working 100x faster than a standard solar cell factory, will outproduce every other solar factory in the US this year, and they already have funding to start building the second one. Their conversion efficiency is similar (15-18%), but more importantly, at full capacity they figure they can produce solar cells for less than $1 per watt. For comparison, the absolute cheapest solar cells today are $3 per watt, most sell for about $4 per watt.
Solution #2 - Make them smaller and get innovative
Sunrgi has come up with an entirely different approach - use far smaller solar cells and magnify the sun's rays. This both makes the cell more efficient and cheaper as well as using less space for the same wattage. Claiming an astounding 37.5% conversion efficiency (that means 375W per sq M of space on your roof). This is another promising technology that is on the edge of commercial production.
The practical upshot of all this cheap solar technology is this - every house with a reasonably south face can theoretically install a solar system that will cover 100% of their electricity usage. No more power bills. Ever. The only question is the number of cells you need will depend on where you live. Arizona residents will only need a few cells, whereas people in Maine would need quite a few more. Grid-tie systems are already well developed and thousands of them have been implemented all over the US.
Revolution #2 - Electric mobility
The era of the gas powered car is coming to a close. Gas is at $4+ a gallon, with no sign of dropping anytime soon. SUV sales are dropping like a rock. Current battery technology is moving forward at a brisk pace. A fully electric car is possible, but not practical (see the Tesla, a fantastic tour de force of technology, but holy crap expensive!). That leaves us with "gap" technology that many are already familiar with: Hybrids.
Current hybrids are parallel - meaning they always used gas, but recaptured some of the energy in breaking to make the gas motor much more efficient, giving you a nice 30-40% boost in gas mileage, but you were still using a 100% gas car. The electricity all game from the gas, one way or another.
The next generation of hybrids will be serial - meaning you will have a 'range extender' in the guise of a small gas or diesel motor that will only kick in to recharge the batteries when they run low. Both GM's Volt and the next generation Toyota Prius will take advantage of this technology to produce a more efficient automobile. The advantage of this is, as long as you stay within the range of the car's batteries, you will never use a drop of gas. When you get home from work, simply plug the car in and use electricity (at current prices in my area, the rough equivalent of 75c/gal). Couple this with the aforementioned solar cells and the cost to fuel your car for most trips drops to $0.
The future
As battery and ultracapacitor technology improves in the next 10-20 years, I predict we will see the following changes:
- All land speed records will be broken by electric vehicles
- The cost of gas will drop as more and more people go electric, dragging out the death of the gas car over 20-30 years or more
- The cost of electricity will stay constant or go down as electricity providers realize that they must cut costs to compete with home-based electrical generation
I also believe that all this will happen without subsidies. While subsidies will increase the adoption speed, I'd rather the money be spent on researching new technologies rather than making existing ones more affordable. Besides, as each advance happens, the price of the older technology will drop anyway.
UPDATE - The next gen Prius won't be a serial hybrid, but an improved parallel, with the ability to go a fair distance on electric power alone. It will be interesting to see if the redesign can compete with the Volt in terms of efficiency.