We're still months away from the election, but with the primary wars behind us, the nation has turned its attention to the general election. Poblano has been busy crunching the numbers over at FiveThirtyEight.com, and right now he places Obama's chances of winning at a modest 54%.
There's lots of time before the election, but as I see it, Obama has two choices:
- He can run the "try not to lose" campaign of Kerry in '04 (and to a lesser extent Gore in '00). This involves essentially treading water, avoiding harsh, direct attacks, and constantly relying on polling to choose the right stances and strategies. If Obama follows this, it's likely he'll have a close ear to the people in Ohio and Michigan (both listed as having a 49% chance of going blue) and try to squeeze out those states, and therefore the election.
- He can run an aggressive campaign that will likely carry him to a comfortable victory. He can use his war chest to pummel McCain, he can skillfully use Democrats like John Edwards, Wesley Clark, and even HRC (assuming they're not VP) to build up his support around the country, and most importantly, he can push back hard against the inevitable GOP smear campaign.
The first strategy did not work out for Kerry in 2004. I did not question his patriotism when I learned about what he did to his medals, but many did. My support for him didn't waver when he struggled to figure out an Iraq policy, nor when he escaped the campaign trail for some windsurfing, but both of these damaged him.
The key thing was...these issues were all picked up by the media and were given much more airplay than they deserved. And Kerry, pursuing the IhopeIdon'tlose strategy, let himself get pummeled.
Obama has one huge advantage in this campaign that neither Kerry nor Gore had: he is a much better speaker than McCain. He needs to take advantage of this by winning the war of the sound bite.
The Republicans are GREAT at producing sound bites. How much of an advantage have they gotten from phrases like...
Cut and run Democrats
Tax and spend Democrats
Fighting them over there so we don't have to over here
Support our troops
Think about that last one. Since when did supporting our troops mean sending them to die in senseless wars? Monopolizing this phrase has been a major achievement for the GOP, a party run, after all, by chickenhawks.
If Obama wants to win, he needs to become the master of the soundbite.
The success of the concept of "change" was a major reason why Obama won the primary. This one had potential, but I think it's become so muddled by Clinton and McCain's respective spin-offs of "change" that it's not particularly effective.
Based on some of his statements and policies, here are some I'd propose:
Anyone who wants healthcare can get it
As many polls have shown, a majority of Americans believe we should establish a system of universal coverage. This sound bite should assuage Americans who fear being forced to buy coverage.
Get rid of distractions
He could phrase this better than me, but the word "distractions" is an effective way to characterize any attacks the GOP might launch. This was a good response to the flag pin issue.
The John McCain of 2008 is not the John McCain of 2000
This one might be better delivered by a VP or another Democratic leader. Hammer home the message that the maverick everyone knew and loved (until we found out he fathered illegitimate black children) no longer exists. If accompanied by ads showing how McCain has gotten more conservative, this one might work well.
Against the Iraq invasion from the start
Again, a major reason why Obama won the nomination. The Iraq issue will be tricky, since the GOP will be blasting the public with sunny reports about how things are going over there. But even if things improve, there's no doubt that it was a poor choice to invade Iraq. Plenty of other nations (i.e. Australia) have thrown out leaders who stood by Bush on Iraq in favor of more liberal candidate. We might be next.
I'm not a campaign strategist or a speechwriter, so I'm hopeful the Obama campaign will come up with better phrases than this. But to stay out in front and win this thing, Obama needs to control what's played around in the media. And there is no better way to do that than to take advantage of his great oratory skills to craft some quality sound bites.