I just watched a John McCain campaign ad on Comcast cable in central Connecticut. It was focused on the environment, and began with the claim that Sen. McCain went against Bush five years ago to "sound the alarm on global warming" (rough quote). It's a positive ad, in no way attacks Obama, and I have no issue with the spot. If I can find it on YouTube, I'll update this diary at that time.
What is confusing is that the ad is airing in Connecticut, in June. I don't see any value for McCain in chipping away at what is (almost) sure to be a wipeout win for Obama in CT. Is this an (admittedly strange) way of trying to bolster Chris Shays in the 4th, who is apparently in some real trouble? Other possible ideas below.
The only other ways in which spending TV money in CT in the summer makes sense for a Republican that I can imagine are even more convoluted. Is he trying to force Obama to "waste" money in my great state? Is he hoping to make a likely blowout into a mere ~8 point win, so that he can tout how close he is in supposedly-inviolate territory for progressives?
There's only one explanation that really makes sense to me, and I don't have access to the kind of poll data that campaigns rely upon. But it makes me concerned that someone with serious political smarts, who really knows how to read a poll, has seen something that makes her think CT is vulnerable to a combination of issue-stroking (McCain's green, McCain's opposed to taxes-- both are winners in CT) AND race-baiting. McCain won't win our electoral votes with the environment, and he certainly won't shake his Bush-hugging reputation by pointing to a five-year-old "break" with the GOP on climate change.
Does anybody have poll data I don't? Is there any reason to think it makes sense for McCain to be spending his money here? Is there some Campaigning 101 rule of thumb about spreading your money around? Is he trying to keep rich conservative donors in CT from getting angry with him? Does this make any kind of practical, electoral sense? Or is he just trying to "tenderize" New England in hopes that whitebread Yankees will stand there in November and realize they are too scared of an uppity negro in the white house, and swing to McCain on the strength of ads like this? Am I being paranoid?