Actually, I've already posted diaries predicting the outcome of the Montana and South Dakota primaries, so this is kind of a rehash. But, I posted my Montana diary in the middle of the night, and very few people got a chance to see it.
It is interesting to note that several months ago, when the Obama campaign was trying to forecast the outcome of these primaries they predicted they would win Montana 55% to 44% and South Dakota 57% to 42%. I would assume they based this on available internal polling at the time.
As it stands currently, the conventional wisdom is that Obama will cruise to victory in Montana and have a tougher time in South Dakota.
My updated, official predictions for both are as follows:
Montana - Obama 59.6%, Clinton 39.4%, Other 1.0%
South Dakota - Obama 55.6%, Clinton 43.6%, Other .8%.
I have already stated most of the reasons why I think these states will turn out this way. My basic reasoning has to do with ethnic background (German/Scandinavian influences), level of education, and regionalism. I had originally thought that South Dakota would turn out like North Dakota (Obama +24), but Obama hasn't campaigned nearly as much as the Clintons have in the state, and the Clintons are very popular among the Native American community there. Native Americans comprise 8.8% of the state's citizens. Still, I am sticking with my prediction of a double-digit win in the Mount Rushmore state, based on the size of his rallies in places like Rapid City, Aberdeen, Mitchell, and Sioux Falls.
Incidentally, the only poll conducted in South Dakota had Obama leading 46% to 34%. http://www.argusleader.com/...
UPDATE: There is a new ARG poll which shows Clinton with a big lead in SD. I am not using ARG because they are not a real polling outfit in my view. RCP doesn't use them in their polling averages. They were off in Oregon by 13 points. They were off in South Carolina by 26 points. They were off in Iowa by 22 points. Personally, I think they just look at a state like South Dakota and say to themselves: 'Hmmm.... lots of white people... okay Clinton 60, Obama 36 sounds about right.'
Regarding Montana, it is pretty clear that the Clintons have written it off. Furthermore, the only poll that has been conducted showed a huge lead for Obama. http://www.helenair.com/...
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Montana has only one Congressional District.
Here is a map of Montana's counties.
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And here is a map which shows how I think the different counties will play out.
Dark Blue - Obama Strong
Blue - Obama
White - Tossup
Red - Clinton
In a previous diary, I posted a ton of pictures of Montana, but I am only posting three here. If you want to see more, here's the link to my previous Montana diary: http://www.dailykos.com/...
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Here is the capital of Montana, Helena.
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Glacier National Park (Glacier County) is one of our national treasures. The picture here shows Avalanche Creek, the eerie blueness of which is caused by glacial silt.
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Here is another picture of Glacier National Park.
Don't you just want to move to Montana? :)
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Montana has a total of 16 pledged delegates: 10 district, 4 at-large, and 2 PLEO.
Obama should receive 6 district delegates to Clinton's 4 and the rest should split evenly.
This results in:
Obama: 9 pledged delegates
Clinton: 7 pledged delegates
Now onto South Dakota. South Dakota has one Congressional District.
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I did not create a homemade map for this particular prediction. But what I did is circle the areas of this South Dakota map where I feel Obama will do particularly well:
Pennington County in the west end of the state is basically the Rapid City metro area. I don't think Obama will lose Pennington County but it could be very competitive there.
Pierre is the state capital and it should go heavily for Obama. I got a speeding ticket there last summer and was not incredibly pleased about it. :(
Brown County is Aberdeen. I don't expect Obama to have a real tough time there.
Brookings County (county seat - Brookings) should be massive Obama territory. It is the location of South Dakota State University.
Minnehaha County is the Sioux Falls metro area and holds 21% of the state's population. Obama has already done two large rallies there and I think he'll carry the county by 15 points.
Union County/Southeast is the Sioux City, Iowa metro area. Obama shouldn't have a problem there.
Yankton County Democrats are mostly in the 40-and-under group and will go strongly for Obama.
Codington County is Watertown. I am going on gut instinct here.
And now, for those of you who have not visited South Dakota before, here are some lovely pictures.
No trip to South Dakota is complete without a pilgrimage to Mount Rushmore.
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The highway which goes through Spearfish Canyon has to be one of the most gorgeous causeways on earth.
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Here is Rough Lock Falls in another area of Spearfish Canyon.
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I posted another diary with more South Dakota pictures here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
In South Dakota there are 15 Democratic primary pledged delegates: 9 district, 4 at-large, and 2 PLEO. The district delegates should split 5-4 in Obama's favor and the rest should split evenly.
This results in:
Obama: 8 pledged delegates
Clinton: 7 pledged delegates
If Obama were to manage to break 61.2% in the two-way vote comparison, he would net 2 additional pledged delegates. That is extremely doubtful, but possible.