As we begin the hard process of unifying the party after a bruising primary, we know that the task will be difficult because of the anger and resentment felt by many of Hillary Clinton's most ardent supporters. I keep reading Clinton supporters write and say that they will never vote for Obama, and will either vote for McCain, write-in Hillary, or stay at home. I also read about how they say they won't be threatened into voting for McCain because of trumped up fears that a McCain presidency will mean the end of Roe v. Wade.
I'm writing this diary because there is an important fact that all democrats and pro-choice voters must know about, a fact that should help them realize that the threat to Roe v. Wade is real. The fact that must be stated over and over again is that the average age of the 5 justices on the Court who support Roe v. Wade is seventy-four. And we thought John McCain has an age issue.
More below the fold.
Here are the ages of the 9 current Supreme Court justices. I've listed the ages and dates of birth of the five most liberal justices.
88 - John Paul Stevens- April 20, 1920
75 - Ruth Bader Ginsburg- March 15, 1933
71- Anthony Kennedy July 23, 1936
68 - Steven Breyer- August, 1938
68 - David Souter- September 17, 1939
Average age: 74 years
Given the ages of these justices, there is an extremely good chance that there will be at least one, possibly two retirements during the next President's first term. John Paul Stevens, a Gerald Ford appointee, at 88 years of age is most likely to retire within the next four years. If he does, and if McCain is president, the person he nominates could become the fifth vote needed to overrule Roe v. Wade.
Justices Thomas and Scalia have already voted to overrule Roe once before and will definitely do so again if given the opportunity. With Alito and Roberts, while they don't have much a track record as recently appointed justices, Alito is known for having very conservative views on abortion and privacy rights, and Roberts is very conservative as well. One more vote is all that they'll need.
The news gets even worse when you look at the age of the conservative justices.
72 - Antonin Scalia- March 11, 1936
59 - Clarence Thomas- (born June, 1948)
58 - Samuel Alito- (born April, 1950)
53 - John Roberts- (Chief Justice) January 27, 1955
Average age - 60.5 years
Only Scalia is a possibility for retirement in the next 8 years, as 3 of the 4 conservative justices are still in their 50's. For those 3 justices, if they serve until age 75, the age of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, two of them will serve for at least another 15 years (Thomas & Alito) and one will serve for over two decades.
So, while the conservative bloc on the Court is firmly entrenched and won't be going anywhere anytime soon, all five members of the liberal bloc may not be around at the end of the second term of the President elected this year.
If the next president is elected to two terms, he or she may have a realistic opportunity of making between three and up to SIX Supreme Court appointments over the next 8 years. In comparison, Bush II appointed two justices during his 8 year term, while Bill Clinton also appointed two justices. Bush I appointed 2 justices during his one term, and Reagan appointed three justices, two of whom still remain on the Court (Kennedy and Scalia).
So, whenever talking about the Supreme Court and Roe v. Wade with a Clinton supporter, emphasize these three numbers:
- 74 - average age of liberal justices
- 88 - age of John Paul Stevens, one of the liberal justices
- 60.5 - average age of justices who want to overturn Roe v. Wade.
And then bring up the fact that John McCain is pro-life and has already been promising to nominate justices who do not engage in "judicial activism," a code word for justices who don't believe in a fundamental right of privacy. As some of them consider voting for McCain, they really should consider all these facts to fully understand the ramifications of making that particular choice.
UPDATED: Title changed.