McCain is trying to make this election a referendum on Iraq, and the conventional wisdom inside the beltway is that he will win it if his attempt is successful. His position has been boosted by a Pew Research poll conducted last month which found that 46% of Americans thought McCain can handle Iraq better than Obama. A slightly lower number (43%) favored Obama. But McCain’s approach has significant problems.
First, its success is tied to the continuation of good reports coming from Iraq. But history is stuck against it. Since 2005, the deadliest months in Iraq both for US troops and civilians are the months between August and November. This isn’t without reason. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan took place in either of the months between August and November in those years and Ramadan is the time when the insurgents and Al Qaida try to send their messages. This year Ramadan will be in September and the number of attacks against American soldiers, if history is any evidence, may sharply increase.
Second, the fact that McCain is talking about it repeatedly will force Americans to take a closer look at where Iraq is. Yes, the number of US deaths in Iraq has fallen. Yet the political solution is still out of sight and, as Obama pushes the issue hard, Americans will realize that without political agreement, it will only be a matter of time before the country slides back to the civil war. In fact, the May Pew Research Poll also showed the number of people who thought McCain could handle the Iraq situation better declined from 50% in April to 46% in May. As Obama campaigns against McCain’s position more and more, his number has climbed from 38% in April to 43% in May.
Third, whenever McCain talks about Iraq, Obama gets an opportunity to make the case that a McCain presidency would mean a third bush term. The May Pew research Poll’s finding did show that Obama was becoming pretty successful in hammering that point home as 44% of Americans thought that McCain’s presidency would mean a continuation of Bush’s policies.
Fourth, with the economy unlikely to recover before fall, Obama will get a chance to link the economy with Iraq. He hasn’t so far hit this line hard. But he will; and there are plenty of evidences to prove his point.