Just posted today on WikiLeaks is a memo purportedly from Steven Schmidt, McCain's senior campaign advisor, laying out a campaign to manipulate angry white female Clinton supporters over 40 to express their anger by voting for McCain.
In time-honored Wikileaks style, the pros and cons of the memo are laid out for discussion. Pros and cons, and the full text of the memo, are overleaf.
Pros:
* Election campaigns have a history of producing many more true leaks than fabricated ones.
* Campaign committees have a history of denying true leaked memos.
* The memo is highly critical of Obama, but only Obama's campaign stands to benefit from a fabrication.
* Election campaigns are long, fast moving and stressful. There is a history of injudicious memos having been written during election campaigns.
* Informal language is frequently used within a campaign group. Campaign groups tend to become very close, united by their common purpose.
* If engaging in a fabrication a politically stronger fabrication could have been produced.
* Despite Wikileaks sitting on the document for several days while waiting for comment from the McCain team the memo has not appeared elsewhere on the internet or in the press. Nor did the McCain spokesperson mention that they had seen it before.
* The source, in their submission said they were unhappy about the "astroturfing" issue and that there was "no urgency" in releasing the document.
* Genuine sources want protection, but campaign fabricators want maximal dissemination, so why hasn't the document been disseminated elsewhere?
Cons:
* Unequivocal denial from McCain spokesperson Jeff Sadosky.
* Election campaigns have a history of producing some fabricated leaks.
* Motive is present. The memo's dissemination would benefit Obama at the expense of Clinton and McCain.
* Would the McCain team be so injudicious as to write, in passing, 'We have organized dozens of "meet-ups" across the country for Clinton supporters'?
* Relatively informal language.
The text of the memo:
MEMORANDUM
To: *******
From: S. Schmidt
Date: May 15, 2008
Subject: Clinton Strategy
According to both internal polling and exit polls by independent news
organizations, the Democratic Party is becoming increasingly polarized along
certain segments of its base. The recent result in West Virginia, while generally
unsurprising and definitely unlikely to cause any real shift in the race,
highlights the growing bitterness between certain supporters of Clinton and
the Obama camp in general. This unique situation has created an opening that
could help depress the turnout of key Democratic demographics in November.
The specific group we are targeting is a cross-section of white, female voters
over the age of 40. Internal polling reveals that this group is the most likely to
support John McCain after Obama wins the nomination. However, we expect
Obama’s numbers to improve following Clinton’s drop. Our job is to make sure
that number stays as low as possible.
Our limited financial resources and the media’s attention on the Democratic
race, however, prevent us from reaching this group. Our aim is to point out
specific issues that we believe resonate well:
1. Sen. Obama’s connection to Rev. Wright
2. His inexperience
3. His links to the corrupt Chicago political machine
However, we cannot fully achieve this goal without a greater commitment on
the part of McCain’s fundraisers and our various media partners. In lieu of
that, we have developed a number of inexpensive ways to reach this audience.
We have already worked to reinforce the Clinton campaign’s narrative about
the unfair treatment that some networks, specifically MSNBC, have given her
camp. We are also planning to unroll a new campaign to highlight Obama’s
experience deficit.
Simultaneously, our team has been testing new lines of attack through
independent pro-Clinton communities on the Internet. Our hope is that our
message here will spread by word-of-mouth. Our local community organizing
has also been successful. We have organized dozens of "meet-ups" across the
country for Clinton supporters, and we have used that time to stress the
importance of punishing the DNC for choosing the undemocratically selected
far-left Obama. At the moment, this is nothing more than a headache for the
Obama campaign. With a greater commitment on your part, I hope to see it
metastasize into something much more.
Let me know if you need more detail.
-S
I'm inclined to believe that it's the real thing. The same talking points script keeps coming up on blogs and liberal radio talk shows, always being presented by older sounding white women, who will never engage on the likely consequences of a McCain presidency.
What do you think?