Electoral-Vote.com shows good things for Obama, and that the 50-State Strategy is paying dividends. First off, the electoral vote total, based on the most recent poll in each state: Obama 317, McCain 194, Ties (FL) 27. Next, the states Kerry lost, where Obama's leading (ie. potential Dem flips): CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA. Then, the states Kerry won, where McCain's leading (ie. potential GOP flips): None.
But, most interesting to me, is how Obama's doing vs. how previous Democrats did in each state (more below the fold)...
There are a handful of states where, based on current polling, Obama has more support than Gore, Kerry, or either Clinton campaign (again, all numbers from Electoral-Vote.com:
Alaska (3 EVs)
Obama: 41-45 (-4)
Kerry: 35-62 (-27)
Gore: 28-59 (-31)
WJC96: 33-51 (-18)
WJC92: 30-40 (-10)
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Obama: 61-31 (30)
Kerry: 54-45 (9)
Gore: 56-38 (18)
WJC96: 57-32 (25)
WJC92: 48-37 (11)
Idaho (4 EVs)
Obama: 39-52 (-13)
Kerry: 30-69 (-39)
Gore: 28-67 (-39)
WJC96: 34-52 (-18)
WJC92: 28-42 (-14)
Illinois (21 EVs)
Obama: 60-31 (29)
Kerry: 55-45 (10)
Gore: 55-43 (12)
WJC96: 54-37 (17)
WJC92: 49-34 (15)
Maine (4 EVs)
Obama: 55-33 (22)
Kerry: 53-45 (8)
Gore: 49-44 (5)
WJC96: 52-39 (13)
WJC92: 39-30 (9)
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Obama: 51-39 (12)
Kerry: 50-49 (1)
Gore: 47-48 (-1)
WJC96: 50-40 (10)
WJC92: 39-38 (1)
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Obama: 52-40 (12)
Kerry: 51-49 (2)
Gore: 51-46 (5)
WJC96: 49-40 (9)
WJC92: 45-36 (9)
Vermont (3 EVs)
Obama: 63-29 (34)
Kerry: 59-39 (20)
Gore: 51-41 (10)
WJC96: 53-31 (22)
WJC92: 46-30 (16)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Obama: 45-44 (1)
Kerry: 45-54 (-9)
Gore: 45-53 (-8)
WJC96: 45-47 (-2)
WJC92: 41-45 (-4)
Washington (11 EVs)
Obama: 55-37 (18)
Kerry: 53-46 (7)
Gore: 50-45 (5)
WJC96: 50-37 (13)
WJC92: 43-42 (1)
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Obama: 51-40 (11)
Kerry: 50-49 (1)
Gore: 48-48 (0 - Gore won by a slim margin)
WJC96: 49-39 (10)
WJC92: 41-37 (4)
Also, some states where Obama's better off than we were in 3 of the last 4 elections (and better than Kerry or Gore):
Colorado (9 EVs)
Obama: 43-41 (2)
Kerry: 47-52 (-5)
Gore: 42-51 (-9)
WJC96: 44-46 (-2)
WJC92: 40-36 (4)
Florida (27 EVs)
Obama: 45-45 (0)
Kerry: 47-52 (-5)
Gore: 49-49 (0 - we all know how that one turned out)
WJC96: 48-42 (6)
WJC92: 39-41 (-2)
Georgia (15 EVs)
Obama: 43-44 (-1)
Kerry: 41-58 (-17)
Gore: 43-55 (-12)
WJC96: 46-47 (-1)
WJC92: 44-43 (1)
Kansas (6 EVs)
Obama: 37-47 (-10)
Kerry: 37-62 (-25)
Gore: 37-58 (-21)
WJC96: 36-54 (-18)
WJC92: 34-39 (-5)
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Obama: 44-50 (-6)
Kerry: 40-60 (-20)
Gore: 41-58 (-17)
WJC96: 44-49 (-5)
WJC92: 41-40 (-9)
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Obama: 36-52 (-16)
Kerry: 32-60 (-28)
Gore: 33-58 (-25)
WJC96: 35-49 (-14)
WJC92: 29-50 (-21)
North Carolina (15 EVs)
Obama: 43-45 (-2)
Kerry: 44-56 (-12)
Gore: 43-56 (-13)
WJC96: 44-49 (-5)
WJC92: 42-43 (-1)
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Obama: 38-44 (-6)
Kerry: 36-63 (-27)
Gore: 33-61 (-28)
WJC96: 40-47 (-7)
WJC92: 42-44 (-2)
Oregon (7 EVs)
Obama: 46-38 (8)
Kerry: 52-48 (4)
Gore: 47-46 (1)
WJC96: 47-39 (8)
WJC92: 43-33 (10)
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Obama: 40-53 (-13)
Kerry: 29-69 (-40)
Gore: 28-69 (-41)
WJC96: 37-50 (-13)
WJC92: 34-40 (-6)
Between the two lists, that's 21 states, where Obama's doing better than Kerry, Gore, and at least one Clinton campaign. And that's before a single ad has run in the national campaign. Now, there are several conclusions you can draw from this: Obama's a hell of a candidate; McCain's a lemon; the Republican brand is utterly tarnished; the 50-State Strategy has rejuvenated the Democrats. Personally, I think it's a combination of all of the above.
But, whatever the cause, the effects are clear: In over a third of the country, Obama's doing better than any Democrat has in 6 election cycles (I tend to assume Mondale & Dukakis did worse than any of the above). He's poised to be the first Democrat in a generation to win in Virginia, and the first to make Alaska and Mississippi swing states. He's putting New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin out of reach (so much for the meme that only Hillary can win PA).
Now, you might point out, rightly, that there are plenty of states on this list that are either solidly red, or solidly blue, which will stay that way in the next election. But look at the trends in some of those states: Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, Georgia, Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Wyoming - in every one of those states, the Democrats have trended worse in each of the past four elections. And every one of those states has bounced back.
North Carolina's in play. North Dakota's in play. Alaska's in play. Mississippi's in play. Georgia's in play. Of all those states, the only one to go blue was Georgia, which Clinton won by a point in '92 (and lost in '96). And now, they're all states where, even if Obama doesn't win, McCain's got to spend resources he doesn't have playing defense.
This all adds up to two things: an Obama landslide for one, but also help in down-ticket races at every level. If BHO loses Idaho by 13 instead of 39, how many more Idahoans are going to just pull the big lever and vote Democrat for their Congressman, their state legislator, their mayor, their sheriff, their local judge?
We - not just Obama, not just Dean, but all of us, everyone who's been supporting the cause through 7 dark years (or the 40 dark years since Nixon) - are re-making this country, and in every part of it, we're going to see two things: More Democrats; Better Democrats!