In 2004, a few days before the election, Osama bin Laden released a videotape in which he basically endorsed John Kerry. Now, obviously, those of us paying attention realized that GWB was the best thing that ever happened to Al Queda, and that they knew by saying they wanted Kerry to win, a certain number of uninformed voters would be influenced to vote for the candidate NOT endorsed by the perpertrators of 9-11.
Who knows how many thousands of votes that well-timed 'surprise' cost Kerry? Perhaps enough to have made the difference in a couple of swing states? Throw in the BlackBox voting and it's entirely possible.
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Now just imagine it's October 30/31, 2008. The election is next Tuesday and we get ANOTHER video tape. It's Osama or some other individual that the newscasters tell us is the number 2, 3 whatever in Al Queda. THIS time, the endorsement is for 'our Muslim brother', Barack HUSSEIN Obama. Maybe just before or just after this, Homeland Security conveniently raises the terror alert for the first time since, oh...I don't know, the LAST presidential election, claiming some kind of 'chatter' on the wires and for us to be 'vigilant' and 'on the lookout' and all that good fear-mongering, alarmist stuff. Even if he still has a 10-15 pt. lead in key state & national polls, if this sequence of events occurs, which is not at all out of the realm of possibility, that lead can drop to within the margin error OVER freaking NIGHT. And that is without any ACTUAL terrorist attack taking place. God forbid something actually does occur. And there will be NO TIME for Obama recover.
Now, the only area where McCain consistently beats Obama in polling is on war/terrorism/national security. Obama does not want to leave ANY opening for the 'he's a secret manchurian Muslim who really wants to hand the country over to the terrrorists' meme. When the sound bites start flying, Obama wants HIS to be 'I'm protecting America, national security trumps everything, yada yada yada'. If he leaves an opening on national security, the Republican will wear him out with 'you can't trust him to do what's necessary to keep America safe.'
After a few months sowing of these doubts, when the 'surprise' comes, Obama will be way more vulnerable, perhaps, than if he appears MORE hawkish than the bluest of blue dog dems. I don't think he likes it or wants it to be this way, but, as the nominee, he doesn't have the luxury counting on the American people to not be duped THIS TIME, into voting from fear, like they have so many times before. And, if he can keep McCain from sowing these doubts too deeply, maybe he can ride out the hit when/if it comes.