Ok, I'm not a Poblano stalker (much), even though my last diary was also about Poblano in the press; but I've got to give as many props as I can to the man. The reason is I am big user of statistics and regression daily in my job at Google, and I love to see these methods being used so successfully for political prediction.
http://www.newsweek.com/...
Teaser:
Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw.
More below...
I, for one think that Poblano's work will really change the face of political prediction, and in 4 years we will be seeing regression-based political prediction being used everywhere.
From the article:
On May 6, expectations were high for Hillary Clinton. After all, the latest polls suggested the former First Lady had built up a 5-point cushion in Indiana and slashed Barack Obama's 20-point lead in North Carolina to 8. But over at FiveThirty Eight.com, an anonymous blogger (nom d'écran: "Poblano") wasn't convinced. Relying on demographic data from previous primaries and ignoring the usual mishmash of polls, the mysterious upstart projected that Clinton would win Indiana by 2 percent and lose North Carolina by 17—a far-less favorable outcome. When the results finally rolled in—1 in Indiana, 15 in North Carolina—Poblano had outperformed every established pollster. Clinton never recovered, but with the National Journal, the Guardian and the New York Post suddenly dissecting or demanding the secrets of his success, Poblano became an Internet sensation. "It was kind of amazing," he says.
...and of course the best part
So who will win in November? Silver says Obama (full disclosure: he's a supporter). Predicting the Election Day outcome is not like predicting a primary; with no previous head-to-head results to mine, Silver is relying on Census data to balance out the polls. So far, Silver's system shows Obama and McCain splitting the popular vote 50.0 percent to 50.0 percent, with Obama winning the Electoral College 274.4 to 263.6
So if you're addicted to this stuff like I am read the article, and haven't already, please check out fivethirtyeight. Of course, you should still donate, volunteer, and do everything you can for the Obama campaign as well.
Also, props to Daily Kos! If it weren't for this site (of course, this takes a back seat to Poblano's ingenuity), the world would have never seen Poblano's great work.