I am in the process of getting together a team of volunteers to do big voter registration drives in Mississippi. We will be starting in the Gulfport / Biloxi area. (We will work our way through the entire state until every county is covered).
NOTE: If you can't help in Gulfport necessarily, but DO live in a different area of Mississippi and want to help there, drop me a line.
The voter registration drives will take place over two successive weekends in Gulfport / Biloxi. June 27, 28, 29 and July 4, 5, 6. I don't expect to have a ton of success finding volunteers for July 4th weekend, but that is a weekend when a ton of people will be out and about, making it an excellent time to do actual registration.
Our overall goal is to register 10,000 new voters in the area. It may take more than two weekends to do this, but this is the goal. The registration drive will be very well-organized, with specific locations picked out and approved in advance and very specific guidelines and directions for volunteers. The locations will be selected in such a way as to maximize the potential for Obama to pick up votes.
The drives will be coordinated with the Obama campaign so as to hit locations / places that the Obama campaign either hasn't already covered or hasn't covered that much.
What I am looking for:
- People who can volunteer for part or all of the weekend(s) listed. (And people who can RECRUIT other people!)
- Donations of food / beverages for volunteers.
- People who are possibly willing to host out-of-towners. (this may not be necessary due to the fact that most volunteers for this particular drive will be from a 20-mile radius and won't necessarily need lodging).
So how about it? Who lives in the region or would be willing to travel there on the weekends listed to register Obama voters? Just fyi, Bush's margin of victory in Jackson / Harrison counties (Biloxi/Gulfport) was 36,189. He won 65.9% of the two-way vote tally. VAP (voting age percentage) turnout was below 50% for both counties. There is probably not a realistic way for Obama to win either county. But the point is to reduce the margin of McCain's victory in these counties to give Obama a better chance at winning the state as a whole. Drives in other areas of the state will soon follow.
I realize that many people are possibly skeptical about the possibility of an Obama victory in Mississippi. However, realize the following: In the 2004 general election, according to the exit poll, only 34% of Mississippians who voted were African American. Therefore, roughly 391,804 of the 1,152,365 voters who voted that day in Mississippi were African American. However, around 38% of Mississippi as a whole or 1,121,000 residents are African American. Approximately 73% of Mississippians are of voting age - which would translate to 818,330 African Americans eligible to vote in Mississippi this Fall. If just 60% of eligible African American voters showed up to the polls, that would translate to 490,998 voters - already 32,000 higher than the number of votes Kerry got in 2004. What would happen if 80% showed up? That would translate to 654,554 - just 30,000 shy of the number of votes Bush got in Mississippi overall in 2004.
Is there a plausible scenario for Obama actually winning Mississippi? The answer is a resounding yes. According the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama trails McCain by only 6 points - 50 to 44% and that poll had African Americans comprising only 36% of likely voters. A truly massive voter registration, mobilization, and turnout effort in Mississippi could result in African Americans comprising as much as 44% of the overall electorate in the Fall. A possible scenario for an Obama victory would look like this:
Obama McCain Barr/other
White 55% 16% 80% 4%
Black 42% 93% 5% 2%
Other 3% 40% 58% 2%
Which results in:
Obama 49.06%
McCain 47.84%
Barr/Other 3.1%
To be sure, this is cutting it close and relying on a lot of factors working out well. But why put all of our eggs in one electoral basket so to speak? What if Obama ends up needing a state like Mississippi to put him over the top? It's not likely, but it's possible. And Mississippi is a state that is just ripe for an upset this year.
Just so everyone knows,
My email address is ObamaManiac2008@yahoo.com. Let me know! This is exciting! This is actually going to happen!
If you get a chance, please rec this diary for maximum impact so we can have a big team of volunteers to take the gulf coast by storm.