Rasmussen lately, even as its national daily tracking shows an Obama decline into a virtual dead heat with McCain, has had a series of great state polls for Obama in June and July.
Today continued the trend.
Rasmussen today shows, with leaners included, Obama winning Iowa 51-41 and Michigan 50-42. It's huge that they show leaners now and that Obama breaks 50 in these states in addition to having statistically significant leads.
If you go by Rasmussen state polls alone, considering their polling most of the time is friendlier to Republican candidates than other outfits' polling, Obama would win the election by holding all Kerry states, some by record margins, and taking Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. Ohio is a one-point 44-43 McCain lead in Rasmussen's most recent poll, and I'm anxious to see what they produce the next time now that they push leaners to reduce the number of true undecideds.
Ultimately a lot of these great Rasmussen polls for Obama are bringing Rasmussen into line with other pollsters in these states. That's comforting to me since Rasmussen is one outfit with one of the best records the past couple cycles in Presidential state polling and in Senate races.